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Week 12 picks
Well, Week 11 wasn’t pretty but it wasn’t painful either. I put up a bunch of units and at the end of the day was only down 1.5 units because my bigger games won out. Still, going 3 and 5 sucks. On to this week:
| Oregon -12, 2u |
Oregon @ Arizona. Oregon plays its first Thursday night game in quite a while (I can’t ever remember one before) and makes its case for why it should stay in the top 2, regardless of what those Big 12 teams do in the next few weeks. Out of the three remaining Oregon games, I think this one is the most dangerous. Arizona always warms up its play by November, and their quarterback is quite good. I doubt they’ll be able to stop Oregon’s offense; the question is, if this turns in to a shootout in the desert, could Arizona get lucky? I’m thinking not, but I would completely understand if people would rather parlay the over with an Arizona victory here. |
| Nevada +8, 4u |
Hawaii @ Nevada. OK, OK, I know it’s an undefeated team vs. a 5-4 middle-grade WAC team. But Hawaii is a few plays a way from a middle-grade WAC team itself. The reason? The Warriors have terrible road game play. Nevada, on the other hand, has been heating up and is a very different team than the one Nebraska thrashed at the start of the season. Also, Colt Brennan took a huge hit last game and he may not be at 100%, despite the comments from his coach that he’s fine. This game might be my play of the season. |
| Mississippi State +11, 2u |
Miss. State @ Arkansas. The Razorbacks keep on finding ways to lose, whereas Mississippi State looks like they’re going to a bowl game for the first time in years. Momentum is with the underdog here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upset Arkansas and win this one outright. |
| Boise State -33.5, 1u |
Idaho @ Boise State. The Broncos are kings of the blue turf. Their last few home games have been blowouts. I don’t know that much about Idaho other than they suck, otherwise I’d put more than one unit on this game. |
| Duke ML +200, 1u |
Duke @ Notre Dame. Of all my picks, this is the one where I have the least confidence. Duke has screwed me this season time and time again. But I love betting against the Irish, and Duke’s team is fired up enough to win this one outright. |
| Georgia -7.5, 2u |
Kentucky @ Georgia. Man, the Bulldogs are on fire these last few weeks! They’ve put up solid performances and blasted through some opponents I thought they’d have a tough time with. I’m a little worried about the spread here, but I think Georgia pulls it off no problem. |
| Missouri -7, 2u |
Missouri @ Kansas State. I can’t believe the spread here is only 7. Nebraska just stormed through the Wildcats last week, and Missouri might possibly deserve its top 5 rating. There’s something wrong here and I can’t put my finger on it, so when in doubt, I’ll just bet two units and hope everything turns out for the best. |
| Ohio State -4, 2u |
Ohio State @ Michigan. Ugh. I can’t believe I’m favoring the Buckeyes here, as a Michigan win would really firm up Oregon’s strength of schedule. I guess a big reason to root for OSU here, though, is if Michigan wins and Oregon gets shafted for the national title game, Oregon will go to the Rosebowl and we’ll have a boring rematch of Oregon/Michigan in which the Ducks blow out the Wolverines again and no one is impressed. Bias aside, Ohio State should trample the Wolverines. |
| Washington State -2, 3u |
Oregon State @ Washington State. I can’t help but wonder: Did any of the oddsmakers SEE the Oregon State/Washington game this last weekend? It was horrendous … I can’t believe the Cougars are only favored here by 2. The Beavers have no discipline, a terrible quarterback and really nothing in their favor besides a better than average running back and fantastic kicker. WSU has Pine Martin Stadium, which chews up teams and spits them out. |
| Wisconsin -13.5, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Minnesota. This game seems like a lock for the Badgers, but I’m an idiot when it comes to handicapping Big Ten football. Also, I guess this is the rivalry game for the two teams. I’m not sure if they’re playing for the Keg’o'Nails trophy or the Little Brown Jug, but I’m glad I don’t have to watch garbage games like this on the West Coast. |
Week 8 picks + last week …
So after an abysmal week 6 (I went 5 for 15 and lost 11 units out of 29 bet) I failed to write a week 7 post here. I thought some of you might be curious what my picks were, though, if you’ll trust this ex-post-facto report:
- Parlayed Michigan/Missouri, 2 units: Won 5.3u.
- Parlayed South Car/BC, 2 units: Lost 2.2u.
- Cincinatti -10, 2u, Lost 2u.
- Oregon -18 1/2, 2u, Won 1.81u.
- Texas Tech -10, 2u, won 1.81u.
- Illinois - 4 1/2, Lost 2u.
Result: Up 2.92 units.
| USF -2 1/2, 2u. |
USF @ Rutgers. I really, really want Rutgers to beat USF so the Ducks have a better chance of going to the national championship. But if you’re wagering money instead of brokering in wishful thinking, I think this is a pretty good bet. |
| South Carolina -13, 2u. |
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina. Spurrier has beaten the spread ALMOST every week this season. I’ll forgive him against surging North Carolina, but I’ll bet his team continues to outperform expectations. Also, Vandy has been a disappointment this year. |
| Wake Forest -3, 1u. |
Wake Forest @ Navy. Wake just a field goal ahead of Navy? Are you kidding me? I like Wake, and I think they play better than they look on paper. I’m a little incredulous about this spread, though, so if you wanted to avoid it it might not be a bad idea. |
| Auburn +11, 2u. |
Auburn @ LSU. Auburn is a tremendous road team, and LSU is a worn out team after tough, tough games vs. Florida and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls an upset here, but save your money and just bet the spread. |
| Cincinnati - 9 1/2, 2u. |
Cinci @ Pittsburg. Pitt is a bad team. Cinci is not. Cinci covers the spread (except for last week.) Pittsburg loses, by a lot. I’d bet this game for anything under three touchdowns. |
| Oregon -11, 2u. |
Oregon @ Washington. I’m a little worried about this game, as Oregon had two awful injuries last week vs. Wazzu. We’re going pretty deep into the depth chart now, but hopefully some receivers/backs step up to the task. Washington is a decent team this year but our defense is improving. Also, Washington seems to melt in the second half, whereas Oregon often comes alive then. |
| Troy -18, 2u. |
North Texas @ Troy. Troy has been doing a great job on the spread, although it was a push last week. North Texas sucks. If I bet only Troy ATS this entire year, I think I’d make a lot of money. |