Archive for the 'Picks' Category
Week 9 picks
| Oregon -2 1/2, 2u |
USC @ Oregon. This is the first time in the regular season USC has been a dog since their 2004 thrashing of Auburn. Will history repeat itself? This Duck fan hopes not. Factors favoring Oregon here: Our offense is awesome. Homefield advantage at Autzen. Dixon being consistent and not cracking under pressure. Jonathan Stewart. USC going down to the wire against bad opponents. Chip Kelley. Factors favoring USC here: Oregon’s injuries finally catching up to them. Number 2 defense (though who has USC played to get those defensive numbers?) USC’s ability to come through with big games (see their 38-0 win over the Irish.) All in all, I take the Ducks, but I’m glad I got on this line before it moved to -3. |
| South Florida -4, 2u |
South Florida @ Connecticut. UConn is not a great football team, but they’ve had a great season so far, thanks to patsies on the schedule and two lucky officiating calls that make the Big East wish for some of those quality replay officials from the Oregon/Oklahoma game of 2006. USF is quite good, and despite their loss against Rutgers, this is a quality ball squad who should cover, unless they’ve lost their motivation with last week’s defeat. |
| Texas Tech -13, 1u |
Colorado @ Texas Tech. There’s a lot of reasons to stay away from this game. Colorado’s pretty decent, Tech got hammered against Missouri last week, etc. But Tech is still a bit underrated, so I think the spread is off enough here to justify putting money on them. |
| VT -3, 2u |
Boston College @ Virginia Tech. Man I hate the ACC. I’m probably just betting this game because I want BC to lose so my Ducks advance. Neither team is really that good. Washington could probably beat them and I’m sure teams like Texas Tech, Illinois and Rutgers could walk all over them. Regardless, I pick the home team here and cross my fingers. |
| Wake Forest -5 1/2, 2u |
UNC @ Wake Forest. Wake is the defending ACC champ, and not a bad football team at all. UNC is, at best, inconsistent. They’ve been doing a good job of beating the spread lately, but winning games is something else, and I just can’t see this game settling for less than a touchdown. |
| Kansas -2 1/2, 2u |
Kansas @ Texas A&M. According to Jamey, a friend of mine who’s a diehard Aggie fan, I should bet against A&M every game of this season. Makes sense. They’re a bad football team this year, they make other teams look great when they play against them (for instance, Miami) and they’re overrated after a win against a tilted Nebraska squad. The Jayhawks aren’t bad, either. Advantage: Kansas. |
| Troy -4, 2u |
Troy @ Arkansas State. I know, I know, I bet Troy every week, no matter what. I’m a little worried this week, though. Arkansas State has won four out of the last five games, and this is one of the toughest conference games the Trojans face this year. Regardless, Troy has done me proud, so I bet them until I get burned. |
Week 8 picks + last week …
So after an abysmal week 6 (I went 5 for 15 and lost 11 units out of 29 bet) I failed to write a week 7 post here. I thought some of you might be curious what my picks were, though, if you’ll trust this ex-post-facto report:
- Parlayed Michigan/Missouri, 2 units: Won 5.3u.
- Parlayed South Car/BC, 2 units: Lost 2.2u.
- Cincinatti -10, 2u, Lost 2u.
- Oregon -18 1/2, 2u, Won 1.81u.
- Texas Tech -10, 2u, won 1.81u.
- Illinois - 4 1/2, Lost 2u.
Result: Up 2.92 units.
| USF -2 1/2, 2u. |
USF @ Rutgers. I really, really want Rutgers to beat USF so the Ducks have a better chance of going to the national championship. But if you’re wagering money instead of brokering in wishful thinking, I think this is a pretty good bet. |
| South Carolina -13, 2u. |
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina. Spurrier has beaten the spread ALMOST every week this season. I’ll forgive him against surging North Carolina, but I’ll bet his team continues to outperform expectations. Also, Vandy has been a disappointment this year. |
| Wake Forest -3, 1u. |
Wake Forest @ Navy. Wake just a field goal ahead of Navy? Are you kidding me? I like Wake, and I think they play better than they look on paper. I’m a little incredulous about this spread, though, so if you wanted to avoid it it might not be a bad idea. |
| Auburn +11, 2u. |
Auburn @ LSU. Auburn is a tremendous road team, and LSU is a worn out team after tough, tough games vs. Florida and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls an upset here, but save your money and just bet the spread. |
| Cincinnati - 9 1/2, 2u. |
Cinci @ Pittsburg. Pitt is a bad team. Cinci is not. Cinci covers the spread (except for last week.) Pittsburg loses, by a lot. I’d bet this game for anything under three touchdowns. |
| Oregon -11, 2u. |
Oregon @ Washington. I’m a little worried about this game, as Oregon had two awful injuries last week vs. Wazzu. We’re going pretty deep into the depth chart now, but hopefully some receivers/backs step up to the task. Washington is a decent team this year but our defense is improving. Also, Washington seems to melt in the second half, whereas Oregon often comes alive then. |
| Troy -18, 2u. |
North Texas @ Troy. Troy has been doing a great job on the spread, although it was a push last week. North Texas sucks. If I bet only Troy ATS this entire year, I think I’d make a lot of money. |
Week 6 picks (Revised)
Well, all the upsets Saturday cost me dearly, as my picks relied on favorites like Oklahoma and West Virginia to pull through. I went 6 out of 14 for the week. Using the weighted average, I was down 2.5 units, after picking 30.9 units worth of bets for the weekend. I’m sorry to say I was right about Cal. Oh well, at least Cincinatti and Troy came through for me.
Final picks for week 6
| South Carolina -3 1/2, 1u u57 1/2, 1u |
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| Louisville -13 1/2, 1u o62, 1u |
Utah @ Louisville. This spread is really weird if you consider how Utah thrashed UCLA and how magnificent lowly Syracuse looked against Louisville. I’m just gonna throw out those games as outliers. The Cardinals are playing at home, Big East rivals West Virginia and Rutgers stumbled over the weekend, and Brian Brohm is pissed that his Heisman hopes have gone down the drain with two losses thus far. This will be a good old fashioned beating. Update:If Louisville beats the spread there will be a lot of points on the board, so I’m also taking the over. |
| Cinci +3 1/2, 2u |
Cincinnati @ Rutgers. Cincinnati is having an amazing season, whereas Rutgers just tanked at Maryland. Sure, the Scarlet Knights play at home, but I don’t think a team like Rutgers really has a home field advantage with such a new fan base. A few mistakes, and their fans will turn against them. Update: Cincinnati has been winning games because of turnovers. They’ve got 13 INTs this season, Rutgers has 4. Yet another reason to go with the Bearcats. |
| Wisconsin +2 1/2, 2u |
Wisconsin @ Illinois. This is just nuts: Wisconsin is ranked number 5 in the AP poll, coaches poll, ESPN Power 16 and ESPN fan standings, while Illinois is unranked. Vegas rates Wisconsin as number 12 in the CCR rankings and puts Illinois at number 50. Of course, Wisconsin has barely won a bunch of trashy games, but they’ve got something to prove here with their 14-game win streak. They need to win this more than Illinois does. I’m betting the Badgers come through. |
+14 1/2 |
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| Wake Forest -7, 3u |
Wake Forest @ Duke. I was quite happy winning with Duke last week, but that was with a 24-point margin. One touchdown is not enough here against the Demon Deacons, who are better than their record indicates. |
| Eastern Michigan +31 1/2, 2u |
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan. Can Michigan come off with a blowout here? They couldn’t against Northwestern, and the only time they’ve even scored above 28 points was against Notre Dame. I need to do a bit more research on Eastern Mich’s defense before I’m certain about this one, though. Update: Eastern Michigan’s D is pretty horrible. They allow about 26 ppg and only put up 15 ppg themselves. However, Michigan’s offense is really bad, statistically. Also, E. Mich is not quite so bad at defending the run as it is overall on D, and I feel Hart is still the main factor for the Wolverines, despite a down game last week. Wolverines win, but fail to beat the spread. |
| Wyoming -3, 2u |
TCU @ Wyoming. TCU was the widely-heralded bowl buster this season. Instead, they threw a few games and now the Cowboys are favored against them. Wyoming is a decent team, and the folks from Texas will probably have difficulty adjusting to October weather on the open plains. |
+3 1/2 |
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| Colorado -8 1/2, 2u |
Colorado @ Baylor. CU is on the rise after beating Oklahoma. Unless they overlook this game, they’ll thrash Baylor. |
| Oklahoma -11, 2u |
Oklahoma @ Texas. Sure, the Longhorns have beaten the Sooners in the last two matchups, and both teams looked awful on Saturday. But the Sooners are actually a good team this year, which is more than can be said of Texas. Stoops’ boys will rebound here. |
| Georgia +2, 2u |
Georgia @ Tennessee. I think the Bulldogs are a decent team here. I think the Volunteers are awful. Sure, this game is at Tennessee and anything could happy, but I’m pretty happy taking Georgia here as an underdog. |
| Texas Tech -24 1/2, 2u |
Iowa State @ Texas Tech. Tech put up 75 points last Saturday. Sure, it was against a 1-AA team, but they still have quite the offense. Iowa State, on the other hand, is really, really, bad. Sure, they beat Iowa, but the Hawkeyes were nothing great. Tech’s a better team than people give them credit for. They should beat this spread without much difficulty. |
| UNLV +6, 1u |
UNLV @ Air Force. How is Air Force the 6-point favorite here? UNLV hasn’t been that bad this year, whereas Air Force is not even the best of three bad service academies. I might just recommend betting the money line on this one in favor of UNLV. |
| Tulsa -3 1/2, 1u |
Tulsa @ UTEP. Every week, I bet Tulsa. Every week, they let me down. It stops this week! |
| Arizona State -8 1/2, 3u |
Arizona State @ Washington State. Seriously, 8 1/2 points? Wazzu is not a good team this year, whereas the Sun Devils are undefeated and rolling up opposing teams (see their 40-point beatdown of Stanford on Saturday.) I do admit Martin Stadium is a tough place to play - I’ve seen the Ducks lose or eke out close ones against the Cougars on their home turf, even when Oregon was the vastly superior team. But I think the spread is reasonable here for a Sun Devil victory. |
| FAU +15 1/2, 1u u48 1/2, 2u |
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic. FAU really isn’t that bad, and while I like South Florida, I don’t think they deserve their number 6 ranking. USF wins here, of course, but I don’t think it will be by more than two touchdowns. Update: Especially considering USF averages only 28 points a game. Yes, their defense allows about 14 points a game but FAU has had a decent schedule so far this season (loss vs. Oklahoma State, win vs. Minnesota, win vs. Middle Tennessee, win vs. crappy 1-AA school) and still managed to put up about 24 points a game. I just don’t think USF can beat the spread. |
| Troy -18, 2u |
Troy @ Florida International. I really don’t care who Troy plays, as long as they keep beating the spread. They’ve been golden the last three weeks. I ride this one until they crash. The streak isn’t likely to end against a team as horrible as FIU. |
Week 5 update
So after waiting the better part of the week for the line to move on a few of these games, I’ve decided to suspend three of my picks for the week and put a caveat on a few others. I tried to be pretty clear in each case that I wouldn’t bet until the line shifted. Well, it hasn’t, so here are my changes:
Miss.St/South Carolina : I wanted Mississippi State to have a more generous spread than the two touchdowns the bettors were originally ceding to the Gamecocks. Instead, the line’s gone down to 13 1/2. I can’t recommend this game, and I won’t be betting it. It’s probably 50/50, but even money is a loser in sports betting.
Arizona St/Stanford : Again, the line has barely moved here all week. Some books have the Sun Devils by 14 1/2, the others have stayed at 14. Again, I think the Cardinal might lose by less than two TDs but it’s not a sure thing. I would have bet this had it gotten to 17, but at the current spread I’ll be staying away this weekend.
Notre Dame/Purdue : The line simply hasn’t shifted here the way I thought it would. The spread is hovering between 22 and 22 1/2 in favor of Purdue. The Irish clearly lose this game, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they go down beyond the 3 touchdown mark. I’d hold off on betting this one, unless it’s in favor of the Irish. Then again, the money might not be safe on Notre Dame either … they’ve certainly proved themselves capable of losing games by larger margins.
Those are the only three bets that completely go against my earlier recommendations. In a few others games, however, I would recommend slight modifications if you haven’t bet yet already:
Penn St/Illinois: I am thinking more and more that Zook’s team wins straight out over Penn State here. The spread of 3 is kind of silly in this case. I was waiting for it to go to 4+ but it looks like Penn State will only be favored by a field goal. So why put down $110 to win $100 when you can just bet $100 on Illinois winning it outright for a shot at $140? Updated bet: Moneyline at +140 on Illinois. 2u.
Auburn/Florida: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida last year. They probably won’t do it again this year, but if Auburn keeps within the 18-point spread, expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I’d recommend parlaying the +18 spread with the under, which is currently hovering around 54 1/2. Updated bet: Parlay Auburn +18/Under 54 1/2. Odds of 2.65/1, 2u.
California/Oregon: As I stated before, I don’t bet against the Ducks. But what I didn’t mention is that Oregon rarely loses close games. They’ve only had two sub 9 point losses since November of 2004. The reason I point this out? Picking Cal at +6 (which is currently the spread) is a bad deal. Just bet the moneyline for them to win out, if you feel like betting against Oregon. If you don’t want to go against Oregon, do what I suggested earlier and parlay the spread with the over. Updated bet: Moneyline at +205 on Cal. 1u.
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