Archive for the 'Picks' Category
Week 3 picks
Man, I’m getting so good at this theoretical picking maybe I should move to Vegas and actually place bets! I’m up 2.6 units this week, for a grand total of 7.3 units. So if I were actually betting, and each unit represented 1 percent of my bankroll, I’d be up 7.3 percent! Better than the stock market, at least.
| Kansas +3.5, 2u |
Kansas @ South Florida. I just don’t buy the South Florida hype; I mean the Ducks destroyed them in last year’s bowl game, they played their first game against a creampuff and they went down to the wire with Central Florida last week. Sure, that was a rivalry game, but I just don’t think they’re going to beat Kansas. |
| Oregon -8, 2u |
Oregon @ Purdue. Classic case of an overmatched Big 10 team vs. a good Pac 10 team. Duck’s defense is better than people give it credit for and Purdue has never seen a spread offense like this one. |
| Georgia -7, 2u |
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia is good, Spurrier’s team has been mediocre for the past few years. I pick Georgia here every time. |
| Oregon State -12.5 |
Hawaii @ OSU. Hawaii is terrible on the road and eventually OSU will win a game. Really. |
| Penn State -27.5 |
Penn State @ Syracuse. Syracuse is the worst team in the Big East and might be in contention for worst team in a BCS conference. Penn State, in my opinion, is better than OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin. Penn State wins big here. |
| Michigan -2 |
Michigan @ Notre Dame. I bet against Notre Dame because they suck, just like they did last year. The end. |
| USC -11, 2u |
Ohio State @ USC. Another case of Pac 10 dominance vs. Big 10. This game will not be close. |
| FAU +17 |
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State. FAU isn’t really that bad; the way Texas crushed them was due in a large part to their coach’s stupid comments inciting Texas before the game. Michigan State isn’t that good. Did I mention they’re Big 10? |
| Western Kentucky +28 | Western Kentucky @ Alabama. I don’t see any reason why Alabama should be motivated by this game. Of course they’ll win, but Western Kentucky is not as bad as this spread indicates. |
| East Carolina -13 |
East Carolina @ Tulane. East Carolina has every motivation to crush the remaining teams on its schedule; its into its Conference USA schedule now with the exception of a game against Virginia in a few weeks. They’ve got 2 quality wins but they’ll have to keep on racking up the scores to stay in the BCS hunt. |
Week 2 picks
Well, week 1 wasn’t bad, I’m up 4.7 units in these hypothetical matchups. Bravely onward to week 2! First, I’d like to note I can’t pick my favorite team against the spread, Troy, because their game with LSU has been called off until November 15, due to hurricanes or some other feeble excuse like that. Hurricanes! Far as I’m concerned, first thing the National Guard should do when they come into a flooded city is put sandbags around the college football stadium, to make sure the turf is ready for Saturday’s game. Then they should sandbag the area around the parking lot, and the road leading to the stadium, so everyone can get to the game on Saturday. Anyway, on to this week’s picks.
| Oregon -35.5, 2u |
Utah State @ Oregon. I’m going to this game and plan to watch the Ducks feast on the bones of their fallen enemy. Seriously, Utah State is rated worst out of all 120 teams, we just thrashed the Huskies by 34 points, I’m pretty sure we can do the same thing plus get a safety to beat the spread here. |
| Marshall +21, 1u |
Marshall @ Wisconsin. We are: Marshall! We are: Marshall! Marshall’s not a great team but the Big 10 sucks and Wisconsin is not as good as people say they are. Keep repeating this until you believe it. |
| Florida -23, 2u |
Miami @ Florida. The two schools play this big intrastate rivalry game that apparently hasn’t happened in something like 20 years. Predicted result: Miami loses by lots of points. Their school is still rebuilding, Florida just beat Hawaii by 50 points and the team will be motivated to rack up points because 1) it helps them with in-state recruiting and 2) it gives them a chance to pad T-bag’s stats for a chance at a second Heisman. |
| Georgia -24, 2u |
Central Michigan @ Georgia. SEC dominance versus the MAC. I’d take this spread at 31, too. |
| BYU -9.5, 2u |
BYU @ Washington. This seems like a safe pick. Hard to tell how good BYU is yet but we know Washington is terrible. Sure, the Ducks played well last week but we would have played well against a high-school team, too. BYU will give a repeat performance on Saturday. |
| Oklahoma State -15.5 |
Houston @ Oklahoma State. As bottom-feeding teams go, Houston’s not awful. They even go to bowl games occasionally. But OSU is really on a roll. I’d be surprised if it was anything less than a 3-touchdown game. |
| Oklahoma -22, 1u |
Cincinatti @ Oklahoma. I’d put this pick down for 2 units or more, but I really don’t know how good Cincinatti is this year. They played well last year but they’ve lost a quarterback. When in doubt, I pick Oklahoma. |
| South Florida -13.5, 2u |
USF @ UCF. It’s civil war when directional Florida goes head to head! Again, I’d like this game for 3 touchdowns, much less two. |
| Oregon State +15, 1u |
Oregon State @ Penn. State. OK so yes, I’m aware that the Beavers lost to Stanford. Stanford. But Stanford has been steadily improving. And the Beavers really beat themselves that game. They came in expecting the Cardinal to roll. They’ll have no such illusions about Penn. State. This is honestly an iffy pick, but I feel obligated to pick the Beavers every now and then after the endless crap I gave their fans this week. |
| Texas Tech -10, 1u |
Texas Tech @ Nevada. I don’t understand why the spread is so close here. Tech is shaping up to another stellar year and Nevada’s a middle-of-the-road non BCS school. Seems easy on paper … this seems like such an easy pick that perhaps I’m missing something here. |
Fun observations for the week: Wow, East Carolina’s only a seven point dog to West Virginia? In other silly matchups, notice that Bowling Green is favored by 5 over Minnesota (bet that decision to fire your coach after the 2006 season is looking pretty stupid now, isn’t it Gopher fans?) and Texas A&M is only a 2.5 point favorite over New Mexico.
No comments[UPDATED] Week 11 picks
Wow, it’s already week 11? I am seriously screwed for final exams, thanks to all this time spent with football. Anyway, I was on fire for last weekend’s picks. I went 7 for 9 in picks but the bets I lost were tiny. Also, I lucked out and got Michigan at -3 1/2 instead of -4 so I won the bet when they came back against MSU and won by 4. Result: Up 12.46 units for the week. Oh: One note here. GridironPolitics favorite Troy State does play this week, but it’s against provisional 1A team Western Kentucky, so the sportsbooks don’t have any lines. If I find a line later this week, I’ll bet it and put it up here.
On to this week: [Changes of bets and lines are striked, new bets/lines are in bold.]
| Wake Forest +9, 1u |
Wake Forest @ Clemson. Wake is really not that bad of a team, and Clemson is a perennial underachiever. I bet the Tigers win this game, but I’m happy to take the underdog by anything over a touchdown here. |
| Miami -3 1/2, 1u |
Virginia @ Miami. Wow, I never thought I’d be betting on the Hurricanes. Virginia has been lucky to squeak by with a lot of close games, while Miami’s QB delivered the most awful performance ever against North Carolina State: 14 pass attempts, one completion, three interceptions. That’s right. Three times the interceptions as completions. But I don’t think he can possibly play another game that bad, and therefore, his performance last week is dragging down a line that should otherwise be 7 or so. |
| Air Force -2 1/2, 3u |
Air Force @ Notre Dame. Alright, I know, Navy beat Air Force then barely sneaks by the Irish in triple overtime a few weeks later. That’s fine, but the Air Force team of this week could whip Navy of Week 10. And the Irish are really, really good at losing. |
| Arizona State |
Arizona State @ UCLA. OK, so the Ducks beat up on the Sun Devils, but they’re still a great team. I was worried the whole game about them coming back and beating us. UCLA, while perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, is horribly coached and very inconsistent. I bet against them in this spot every time. Update: Didn’t bet this in time to get it at 6 1/2, so I had to settle for 7. |
| Auburn |
Auburn @ Georgia. Auburn is a monster team on the road. Georgia just sneaked by Troy (44 - 34). Yes, I’m a huge fanboy of Troy, but still, failing to beat the spread against a mid-major is a problem for a 7-2 SEC team. Auburn will thrash the Bulldogs here. Line got better here. |
| Washington State -10 1/2, 2u |
Stanford @ Washington State. Playing at Martin Stadium in Eastern Washington is really, really tough. It’s very cold this time of year, the crowd is boisterous and the visiting team gets unlucky very often. Arizona State barely got by against Wazzu a few weeks ago in a similar spot; Stanford will lose by two touchdowns here. |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri. TAMU has no way of stopping Missouri in this game. They got killed by Oklahoma and they’ll have similar problems vs. Missouri’s potent offense. Also, I bet against A&M until coach Fran gets fired or Jamey tells me not to. Update: Jamey told me not to. See comments below for more info, but I’m playing A&M to beat the spread (and lose.) | |
| Michigan |
Michigan @ Wisconsin. On paper, this is probably a bad bet. Michigan barely came back against MSU, and Wisconsin kept in close against OSU before tanking late in the third quarter. But Michigan wants the win here more than Wisconsin - after all, the Wolverines are the only team not named OSU that still has a chance at the Big 10 Championship. |
-5, 2u |
Well, I’ve had good luck the last three weeks. After tanking in week 6, I’ve posted three solid weeks. I went 3 and 3 in Week 7, 4 and 3 in Week 8 and 4 and 3 this last weekend.That’s 11 and 9 for a three week record, which I’m very happy with*.
*So happy, in fact, that I end a sentence with a preposition.
Anyway, here are this week’s picks.
| Navy ML +150, 2u |
Navy @ Notre Dame. Navy hasn’t won a game against the Irish in a bazillion years. Navy’s got a solid offense, even if their defense is terrible. I’m betting Navy puts up six touchdowns, and despite their awful defense, the Irish won’t be able to locate the end zone often enough to keep it close. |
| Oregon -7, 2u |
Arizona State @ Oregon. Autzen is a horrible place for opposing teams. I went to the game vs. USC, and MAN was it loud. The crowd is really into it this year, and our defense just feeds off all that noise. Arizona State is a pretty good team this year, but their QB, Carpenter, hurt his thumb in the fourth quarter vs. Cal and apparently he showed up to practice wearing a thumb brace. I figure that might affect his throwing, and with the performance of our D-backs, that means we get a few picks out of the deal. Also, we have this QB named Dixon and I think he’s pretty swell. For the record, I really, really don’t like the spread of a touchdown here, but I think Oregon pulls it off more than 50 percent of the time. |
| Michigan -4, 1u ML -170, 3u |
Michigan @ Michigan State. Michigan has been on fire since their losses vs. spread offenses. I’m a little worried because Hart has been out for a few games with injuries, after carrying the ball 200 times this season. But the Wolverines have the momentum and the motivation: If they win out, the Nov. 17 matchup vs. Ohio State will determine who wins the Big 10, and give Michigan a chance to foil OSU’s chances at the national championship. I’m betting on the moneyline here because I’m not convinced Michigan will win by more than a field goal … I just think they’re going to win. |
| Oklahoma -21, 2u |
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma. As Jamey notes below in the comments, Stoops has no qualms about running up the score, even if margins of victory are not considered by the BCS computers. (I guarantee that the human voters pay attention to the margins.) A&M is awful this year and Oklahoma has everything to prove - after all, the Ducks are still ahead of them in the BCS ;-). |
| Wisconsin +15 1/2, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Ohio State. OK, so PSU couldn’t take out the Buckeyes last week. And I doubt the Badgers will, either. But despite OSU’s stingy defense, I just don’t see Wisconsin losing by more than two touchdowns here. |
| Missouri - 3 1/2, 2u |
Missouri @ Colorado. The spread is low here because Colorado has snuck up on a few good teams. They are not a great team yet, they just prey on the unprepared. Missouri is paying attention to this one, and they are not Texas Tech (remember, Missouri’s win over Tech probably caused the downward spiral that made the Red Raiders lose to Colorado the next weekend.) Missouri wins here by 10 at least. |
| Troy +16 1/2, 3u ML 700, 1u |
Troy @ Georgia. Does my betting streak with the Trojans come to an end here? Georgia is coming off a huge win over Florida and they’ve got another big game next weekend vs. Auburn. This weekend’s game is commonly referred to as a trap game - a game where the underdog is not as bad as many think, and the favorite is looking ahead to the next game instead of treating their competition seriously. I think Troy keeps it close here. I also think there’s an outside chance they upset the Bulldogs (Oklahoma State, anyone?) so I’ll take the moneyline as well as the spread. |
Week 9 picks
| Oregon -2 1/2, 2u |
USC @ Oregon. This is the first time in the regular season USC has been a dog since their 2004 thrashing of Auburn. Will history repeat itself? This Duck fan hopes not. Factors favoring Oregon here: Our offense is awesome. Homefield advantage at Autzen. Dixon being consistent and not cracking under pressure. Jonathan Stewart. USC going down to the wire against bad opponents. Chip Kelley. Factors favoring USC here: Oregon’s injuries finally catching up to them. Number 2 defense (though who has USC played to get those defensive numbers?) USC’s ability to come through with big games (see their 38-0 win over the Irish.) All in all, I take the Ducks, but I’m glad I got on this line before it moved to -3. |
| South Florida -4, 2u |
South Florida @ Connecticut. UConn is not a great football team, but they’ve had a great season so far, thanks to patsies on the schedule and two lucky officiating calls that make the Big East wish for some of those quality replay officials from the Oregon/Oklahoma game of 2006. USF is quite good, and despite their loss against Rutgers, this is a quality ball squad who should cover, unless they’ve lost their motivation with last week’s defeat. |
| Texas Tech -13, 1u |
Colorado @ Texas Tech. There’s a lot of reasons to stay away from this game. Colorado’s pretty decent, Tech got hammered against Missouri last week, etc. But Tech is still a bit underrated, so I think the spread is off enough here to justify putting money on them. |
| VT -3, 2u |
Boston College @ Virginia Tech. Man I hate the ACC. I’m probably just betting this game because I want BC to lose so my Ducks advance. Neither team is really that good. Washington could probably beat them and I’m sure teams like Texas Tech, Illinois and Rutgers could walk all over them. Regardless, I pick the home team here and cross my fingers. |
| Wake Forest -5 1/2, 2u |
UNC @ Wake Forest. Wake is the defending ACC champ, and not a bad football team at all. UNC is, at best, inconsistent. They’ve been doing a good job of beating the spread lately, but winning games is something else, and I just can’t see this game settling for less than a touchdown. |
| Kansas -2 1/2, 2u |
Kansas @ Texas A&M. According to Jamey, a friend of mine who’s a diehard Aggie fan, I should bet against A&M every game of this season. Makes sense. They’re a bad football team this year, they make other teams look great when they play against them (for instance, Miami) and they’re overrated after a win against a tilted Nebraska squad. The Jayhawks aren’t bad, either. Advantage: Kansas. |
| Troy -4, 2u |
Troy @ Arkansas State. I know, I know, I bet Troy every week, no matter what. I’m a little worried this week, though. Arkansas State has won four out of the last five games, and this is one of the toughest conference games the Trojans face this year. Regardless, Troy has done me proud, so I bet them until I get burned. |
Week 8 picks + last week …
So after an abysmal week 6 (I went 5 for 15 and lost 11 units out of 29 bet) I failed to write a week 7 post here. I thought some of you might be curious what my picks were, though, if you’ll trust this ex-post-facto report:
- Parlayed Michigan/Missouri, 2 units: Won 5.3u.
- Parlayed South Car/BC, 2 units: Lost 2.2u.
- Cincinatti -10, 2u, Lost 2u.
- Oregon -18 1/2, 2u, Won 1.81u.
- Texas Tech -10, 2u, won 1.81u.
- Illinois - 4 1/2, Lost 2u.
Result: Up 2.92 units.
| USF -2 1/2, 2u. |
USF @ Rutgers. I really, really want Rutgers to beat USF so the Ducks have a better chance of going to the national championship. But if you’re wagering money instead of brokering in wishful thinking, I think this is a pretty good bet. |
| South Carolina -13, 2u. |
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina. Spurrier has beaten the spread ALMOST every week this season. I’ll forgive him against surging North Carolina, but I’ll bet his team continues to outperform expectations. Also, Vandy has been a disappointment this year. |
| Wake Forest -3, 1u. |
Wake Forest @ Navy. Wake just a field goal ahead of Navy? Are you kidding me? I like Wake, and I think they play better than they look on paper. I’m a little incredulous about this spread, though, so if you wanted to avoid it it might not be a bad idea. |
| Auburn +11, 2u. |
Auburn @ LSU. Auburn is a tremendous road team, and LSU is a worn out team after tough, tough games vs. Florida and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls an upset here, but save your money and just bet the spread. |
| Cincinnati - 9 1/2, 2u. |
Cinci @ Pittsburg. Pitt is a bad team. Cinci is not. Cinci covers the spread (except for last week.) Pittsburg loses, by a lot. I’d bet this game for anything under three touchdowns. |
| Oregon -11, 2u. |
Oregon @ Washington. I’m a little worried about this game, as Oregon had two awful injuries last week vs. Wazzu. We’re going pretty deep into the depth chart now, but hopefully some receivers/backs step up to the task. Washington is a decent team this year but our defense is improving. Also, Washington seems to melt in the second half, whereas Oregon often comes alive then. |
| Troy -18, 2u. |
North Texas @ Troy. Troy has been doing a great job on the spread, although it was a push last week. North Texas sucks. If I bet only Troy ATS this entire year, I think I’d make a lot of money. |
Week 6 picks (Revised)
Well, all the upsets Saturday cost me dearly, as my picks relied on favorites like Oklahoma and West Virginia to pull through. I went 6 out of 14 for the week. Using the weighted average, I was down 2.5 units, after picking 30.9 units worth of bets for the weekend. I’m sorry to say I was right about Cal. Oh well, at least Cincinatti and Troy came through for me.
Final picks for week 6
| South Carolina -3 1/2, 1u u57 1/2, 1u |
|
| Louisville -13 1/2, 1u o62, 1u |
Utah @ Louisville. This spread is really weird if you consider how Utah thrashed UCLA and how magnificent lowly Syracuse looked against Louisville. I’m just gonna throw out those games as outliers. The Cardinals are playing at home, Big East rivals West Virginia and Rutgers stumbled over the weekend, and Brian Brohm is pissed that his Heisman hopes have gone down the drain with two losses thus far. This will be a good old fashioned beating. Update:If Louisville beats the spread there will be a lot of points on the board, so I’m also taking the over. |
| Cinci +3 1/2, 2u |
Cincinnati @ Rutgers. Cincinnati is having an amazing season, whereas Rutgers just tanked at Maryland. Sure, the Scarlet Knights play at home, but I don’t think a team like Rutgers really has a home field advantage with such a new fan base. A few mistakes, and their fans will turn against them. Update: Cincinnati has been winning games because of turnovers. They’ve got 13 INTs this season, Rutgers has 4. Yet another reason to go with the Bearcats. |
| Wisconsin +2 1/2, 2u |
Wisconsin @ Illinois. This is just nuts: Wisconsin is ranked number 5 in the AP poll, coaches poll, ESPN Power 16 and ESPN fan standings, while Illinois is unranked. Vegas rates Wisconsin as number 12 in the CCR rankings and puts Illinois at number 50. Of course, Wisconsin has barely won a bunch of trashy games, but they’ve got something to prove here with their 14-game win streak. They need to win this more than Illinois does. I’m betting the Badgers come through. |
+14 1/2 |
|
| Wake Forest -7, 3u |
Wake Forest @ Duke. I was quite happy winning with Duke last week, but that was with a 24-point margin. One touchdown is not enough here against the Demon Deacons, who are better than their record indicates. |
| Eastern Michigan +31 1/2, 2u |
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan. Can Michigan come off with a blowout here? They couldn’t against Northwestern, and the only time they’ve even scored above 28 points was against Notre Dame. I need to do a bit more research on Eastern Mich’s defense before I’m certain about this one, though. Update: Eastern Michigan’s D is pretty horrible. They allow about 26 ppg and only put up 15 ppg themselves. However, Michigan’s offense is really bad, statistically. Also, E. Mich is not quite so bad at defending the run as it is overall on D, and I feel Hart is still the main factor for the Wolverines, despite a down game last week. Wolverines win, but fail to beat the spread. |
| Wyoming -3, 2u |
TCU @ Wyoming. TCU was the widely-heralded bowl buster this season. Instead, they threw a few games and now the Cowboys are favored against them. Wyoming is a decent team, and the folks from Texas will probably have difficulty adjusting to October weather on the open plains. |
+3 1/2 |
|
| Colorado -8 1/2, 2u |
Colorado @ Baylor. CU is on the rise after beating Oklahoma. Unless they overlook this game, they’ll thrash Baylor. |
| Oklahoma -11, 2u |
Oklahoma @ Texas. Sure, the Longhorns have beaten the Sooners in the last two matchups, and both teams looked awful on Saturday. But the Sooners are actually a good team this year, which is more than can be said of Texas. Stoops’ boys will rebound here. |
| Georgia +2, 2u |
Georgia @ Tennessee. I think the Bulldogs are a decent team here. I think the Volunteers are awful. Sure, this game is at Tennessee and anything could happy, but I’m pretty happy taking Georgia here as an underdog. |
| Texas Tech -24 1/2, 2u |
Iowa State @ Texas Tech. Tech put up 75 points last Saturday. Sure, it was against a 1-AA team, but they still have quite the offense. Iowa State, on the other hand, is really, really, bad. Sure, they beat Iowa, but the Hawkeyes were nothing great. Tech’s a better team than people give them credit for. They should beat this spread without much difficulty. |
| UNLV +6, 1u |
UNLV @ Air Force. How is Air Force the 6-point favorite here? UNLV hasn’t been that bad this year, whereas Air Force is not even the best of three bad service academies. I might just recommend betting the money line on this one in favor of UNLV. |
| Tulsa -3 1/2, 1u |
Tulsa @ UTEP. Every week, I bet Tulsa. Every week, they let me down. It stops this week! |
| Arizona State -8 1/2, 3u |
Arizona State @ Washington State. Seriously, 8 1/2 points? Wazzu is not a good team this year, whereas the Sun Devils are undefeated and rolling up opposing teams (see their 40-point beatdown of Stanford on Saturday.) I do admit Martin Stadium is a tough place to play - I’ve seen the Ducks lose or eke out close ones against the Cougars on their home turf, even when Oregon was the vastly superior team. But I think the spread is reasonable here for a Sun Devil victory. |
| FAU +15 1/2, 1u u48 1/2, 2u |
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic. FAU really isn’t that bad, and while I like South Florida, I don’t think they deserve their number 6 ranking. USF wins here, of course, but I don’t think it will be by more than two touchdowns. Update: Especially considering USF averages only 28 points a game. Yes, their defense allows about 14 points a game but FAU has had a decent schedule so far this season (loss vs. Oklahoma State, win vs. Minnesota, win vs. Middle Tennessee, win vs. crappy 1-AA school) and still managed to put up about 24 points a game. I just don’t think USF can beat the spread. |
| Troy -18, 2u |
Troy @ Florida International. I really don’t care who Troy plays, as long as they keep beating the spread. They’ve been golden the last three weeks. I ride this one until they crash. The streak isn’t likely to end against a team as horrible as FIU. |
Week 5 update
So after waiting the better part of the week for the line to move on a few of these games, I’ve decided to suspend three of my picks for the week and put a caveat on a few others. I tried to be pretty clear in each case that I wouldn’t bet until the line shifted. Well, it hasn’t, so here are my changes:
Miss.St/South Carolina : I wanted Mississippi State to have a more generous spread than the two touchdowns the bettors were originally ceding to the Gamecocks. Instead, the line’s gone down to 13 1/2. I can’t recommend this game, and I won’t be betting it. It’s probably 50/50, but even money is a loser in sports betting.
Arizona St/Stanford : Again, the line has barely moved here all week. Some books have the Sun Devils by 14 1/2, the others have stayed at 14. Again, I think the Cardinal might lose by less than two TDs but it’s not a sure thing. I would have bet this had it gotten to 17, but at the current spread I’ll be staying away this weekend.
Notre Dame/Purdue : The line simply hasn’t shifted here the way I thought it would. The spread is hovering between 22 and 22 1/2 in favor of Purdue. The Irish clearly lose this game, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they go down beyond the 3 touchdown mark. I’d hold off on betting this one, unless it’s in favor of the Irish. Then again, the money might not be safe on Notre Dame either … they’ve certainly proved themselves capable of losing games by larger margins.
Those are the only three bets that completely go against my earlier recommendations. In a few others games, however, I would recommend slight modifications if you haven’t bet yet already:
Penn St/Illinois: I am thinking more and more that Zook’s team wins straight out over Penn State here. The spread of 3 is kind of silly in this case. I was waiting for it to go to 4+ but it looks like Penn State will only be favored by a field goal. So why put down $110 to win $100 when you can just bet $100 on Illinois winning it outright for a shot at $140? Updated bet: Moneyline at +140 on Illinois. 2u.
Auburn/Florida: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida last year. They probably won’t do it again this year, but if Auburn keeps within the 18-point spread, expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I’d recommend parlaying the +18 spread with the under, which is currently hovering around 54 1/2. Updated bet: Parlay Auburn +18/Under 54 1/2. Odds of 2.65/1, 2u.
California/Oregon: As I stated before, I don’t bet against the Ducks. But what I didn’t mention is that Oregon rarely loses close games. They’ve only had two sub 9 point losses since November of 2004. The reason I point this out? Picking Cal at +6 (which is currently the spread) is a bad deal. Just bet the moneyline for them to win out, if you feel like betting against Oregon. If you don’t want to go against Oregon, do what I suggested earlier and parlay the spread with the over. Updated bet: Moneyline at +205 on Cal. 1u.
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