Archive for the 'Oregon' Category
Week 9 picks
| Oregon -2 1/2, 2u |
USC @ Oregon. This is the first time in the regular season USC has been a dog since their 2004 thrashing of Auburn. Will history repeat itself? This Duck fan hopes not. Factors favoring Oregon here: Our offense is awesome. Homefield advantage at Autzen. Dixon being consistent and not cracking under pressure. Jonathan Stewart. USC going down to the wire against bad opponents. Chip Kelley. Factors favoring USC here: Oregon’s injuries finally catching up to them. Number 2 defense (though who has USC played to get those defensive numbers?) USC’s ability to come through with big games (see their 38-0 win over the Irish.) All in all, I take the Ducks, but I’m glad I got on this line before it moved to -3. |
| South Florida -4, 2u |
South Florida @ Connecticut. UConn is not a great football team, but they’ve had a great season so far, thanks to patsies on the schedule and two lucky officiating calls that make the Big East wish for some of those quality replay officials from the Oregon/Oklahoma game of 2006. USF is quite good, and despite their loss against Rutgers, this is a quality ball squad who should cover, unless they’ve lost their motivation with last week’s defeat. |
| Texas Tech -13, 1u |
Colorado @ Texas Tech. There’s a lot of reasons to stay away from this game. Colorado’s pretty decent, Tech got hammered against Missouri last week, etc. But Tech is still a bit underrated, so I think the spread is off enough here to justify putting money on them. |
| VT -3, 2u |
Boston College @ Virginia Tech. Man I hate the ACC. I’m probably just betting this game because I want BC to lose so my Ducks advance. Neither team is really that good. Washington could probably beat them and I’m sure teams like Texas Tech, Illinois and Rutgers could walk all over them. Regardless, I pick the home team here and cross my fingers. |
| Wake Forest -5 1/2, 2u |
UNC @ Wake Forest. Wake is the defending ACC champ, and not a bad football team at all. UNC is, at best, inconsistent. They’ve been doing a good job of beating the spread lately, but winning games is something else, and I just can’t see this game settling for less than a touchdown. |
| Kansas -2 1/2, 2u |
Kansas @ Texas A&M. According to Jamey, a friend of mine who’s a diehard Aggie fan, I should bet against A&M every game of this season. Makes sense. They’re a bad football team this year, they make other teams look great when they play against them (for instance, Miami) and they’re overrated after a win against a tilted Nebraska squad. The Jayhawks aren’t bad, either. Advantage: Kansas. |
| Troy -4, 2u |
Troy @ Arkansas State. I know, I know, I bet Troy every week, no matter what. I’m a little worried this week, though. Arkansas State has won four out of the last five games, and this is one of the toughest conference games the Trojans face this year. Regardless, Troy has done me proud, so I bet them until I get burned. |
Week 8 picks + last week …
So after an abysmal week 6 (I went 5 for 15 and lost 11 units out of 29 bet) I failed to write a week 7 post here. I thought some of you might be curious what my picks were, though, if you’ll trust this ex-post-facto report:
- Parlayed Michigan/Missouri, 2 units: Won 5.3u.
- Parlayed South Car/BC, 2 units: Lost 2.2u.
- Cincinatti -10, 2u, Lost 2u.
- Oregon -18 1/2, 2u, Won 1.81u.
- Texas Tech -10, 2u, won 1.81u.
- Illinois - 4 1/2, Lost 2u.
Result: Up 2.92 units.
| USF -2 1/2, 2u. |
USF @ Rutgers. I really, really want Rutgers to beat USF so the Ducks have a better chance of going to the national championship. But if you’re wagering money instead of brokering in wishful thinking, I think this is a pretty good bet. |
| South Carolina -13, 2u. |
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina. Spurrier has beaten the spread ALMOST every week this season. I’ll forgive him against surging North Carolina, but I’ll bet his team continues to outperform expectations. Also, Vandy has been a disappointment this year. |
| Wake Forest -3, 1u. |
Wake Forest @ Navy. Wake just a field goal ahead of Navy? Are you kidding me? I like Wake, and I think they play better than they look on paper. I’m a little incredulous about this spread, though, so if you wanted to avoid it it might not be a bad idea. |
| Auburn +11, 2u. |
Auburn @ LSU. Auburn is a tremendous road team, and LSU is a worn out team after tough, tough games vs. Florida and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls an upset here, but save your money and just bet the spread. |
| Cincinnati - 9 1/2, 2u. |
Cinci @ Pittsburg. Pitt is a bad team. Cinci is not. Cinci covers the spread (except for last week.) Pittsburg loses, by a lot. I’d bet this game for anything under three touchdowns. |
| Oregon -11, 2u. |
Oregon @ Washington. I’m a little worried about this game, as Oregon had two awful injuries last week vs. Wazzu. We’re going pretty deep into the depth chart now, but hopefully some receivers/backs step up to the task. Washington is a decent team this year but our defense is improving. Also, Washington seems to melt in the second half, whereas Oregon often comes alive then. |
| Troy -18, 2u. |
North Texas @ Troy. Troy has been doing a great job on the spread, although it was a push last week. North Texas sucks. If I bet only Troy ATS this entire year, I think I’d make a lot of money. |
All apologies
The Casper Star Tribune has a heartbreaking story about what happens when you throw rocks off cliffsides. Long story short: Guy throws rock, climber dies, then rock-thrower does the unthinkable and apologizes for his actions. Hmmm. Not something you see every day. Certainly isn’t true in the wretched world of politics (see Larry Craig’s it’s-the-media’s-fault fingerpointing to account for all the hookups he’s had in mens rooms.) But it’s equally unlikely to happen in the world of football. Case in point: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy’s rant against columnist Jennifer Carlson for suggesting OSU’s former starting quarterback was an emotional trainwreck. The best Gundy could do? Apologize for “raising his voice.” The best Carlson could do? Play the victim and avoid admitting that perhaps her column crossed the line. Both parties were out of line, and I guess that’s OK, it’s out of the news cycle now.
I’m not suggesting people in sports are incapable of being honest. LSU coach Les Miles, for example, had this to say about AP voters who put his team at the number one spot this week: “Anybody that voted us No. 1 obviously didn’t get up and watch us play Saturday,” Miles said. “We have to come to work and prepare. We have a lot to improve on and a lot to accomplish.” LSU beat Tulane 34-9, but it was 10-9 at the half. Sportswriters didn’t seem to care that LSU was incapable of beating the spread and rewarded them for not sucking it up like USC did in their 27-24 win against lowly Washington.
There’s at least two sportswriters this week who don’t need to apologize: Kirk Herbstreit and Stewart Mandel. The two saw past Oregon’s heartbreaking loss to Cal and moved the Ducks up to the number 5 and 6 spots, respectively. Does Oregon deserve this treatment? Probably not. But there aren’t too many teams below them that Oregon couldn’t take on a neutral field. Sure, they’d probably lose to LSU, and you might have to flip a coin to see who would win if they rematched Cal, or played USC. Maybe USF might give the Ducks some problems, as South Florida shut down West Virginia’s spread offense without a lot of difficulty. Before this week, I thought Oklahoma might give Oregon some problems if the Ducks continued to be undefeated and they met Oklahoma in a big bowl game. But now, after Colorado’s upset, I’m not so sure. In any case, if Oregon turns out to be overrated, I’ll write a nice apology.
No commentsWeek 5 update
So after waiting the better part of the week for the line to move on a few of these games, I’ve decided to suspend three of my picks for the week and put a caveat on a few others. I tried to be pretty clear in each case that I wouldn’t bet until the line shifted. Well, it hasn’t, so here are my changes:
Miss.St/South Carolina : I wanted Mississippi State to have a more generous spread than the two touchdowns the bettors were originally ceding to the Gamecocks. Instead, the line’s gone down to 13 1/2. I can’t recommend this game, and I won’t be betting it. It’s probably 50/50, but even money is a loser in sports betting.
Arizona St/Stanford : Again, the line has barely moved here all week. Some books have the Sun Devils by 14 1/2, the others have stayed at 14. Again, I think the Cardinal might lose by less than two TDs but it’s not a sure thing. I would have bet this had it gotten to 17, but at the current spread I’ll be staying away this weekend.
Notre Dame/Purdue : The line simply hasn’t shifted here the way I thought it would. The spread is hovering between 22 and 22 1/2 in favor of Purdue. The Irish clearly lose this game, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they go down beyond the 3 touchdown mark. I’d hold off on betting this one, unless it’s in favor of the Irish. Then again, the money might not be safe on Notre Dame either … they’ve certainly proved themselves capable of losing games by larger margins.
Those are the only three bets that completely go against my earlier recommendations. In a few others games, however, I would recommend slight modifications if you haven’t bet yet already:
Penn St/Illinois: I am thinking more and more that Zook’s team wins straight out over Penn State here. The spread of 3 is kind of silly in this case. I was waiting for it to go to 4+ but it looks like Penn State will only be favored by a field goal. So why put down $110 to win $100 when you can just bet $100 on Illinois winning it outright for a shot at $140? Updated bet: Moneyline at +140 on Illinois. 2u.
Auburn/Florida: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida last year. They probably won’t do it again this year, but if Auburn keeps within the 18-point spread, expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I’d recommend parlaying the +18 spread with the under, which is currently hovering around 54 1/2. Updated bet: Parlay Auburn +18/Under 54 1/2. Odds of 2.65/1, 2u.
California/Oregon: As I stated before, I don’t bet against the Ducks. But what I didn’t mention is that Oregon rarely loses close games. They’ve only had two sub 9 point losses since November of 2004. The reason I point this out? Picking Cal at +6 (which is currently the spread) is a bad deal. Just bet the moneyline for them to win out, if you feel like betting against Oregon. If you don’t want to go against Oregon, do what I suggested earlier and parlay the spread with the over. Updated bet: Moneyline at +205 on Cal. 1u.
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