Archive for the 'Oregon' Category
Week 3 picks
Man, I’m getting so good at this theoretical picking maybe I should move to Vegas and actually place bets! I’m up 2.6 units this week, for a grand total of 7.3 units. So if I were actually betting, and each unit represented 1 percent of my bankroll, I’d be up 7.3 percent! Better than the stock market, at least.
| Kansas +3.5, 2u |
Kansas @ South Florida. I just don’t buy the South Florida hype; I mean the Ducks destroyed them in last year’s bowl game, they played their first game against a creampuff and they went down to the wire with Central Florida last week. Sure, that was a rivalry game, but I just don’t think they’re going to beat Kansas. |
| Oregon -8, 2u |
Oregon @ Purdue. Classic case of an overmatched Big 10 team vs. a good Pac 10 team. Duck’s defense is better than people give it credit for and Purdue has never seen a spread offense like this one. |
| Georgia -7, 2u |
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia is good, Spurrier’s team has been mediocre for the past few years. I pick Georgia here every time. |
| Oregon State -12.5 |
Hawaii @ OSU. Hawaii is terrible on the road and eventually OSU will win a game. Really. |
| Penn State -27.5 |
Penn State @ Syracuse. Syracuse is the worst team in the Big East and might be in contention for worst team in a BCS conference. Penn State, in my opinion, is better than OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin. Penn State wins big here. |
| Michigan -2 |
Michigan @ Notre Dame. I bet against Notre Dame because they suck, just like they did last year. The end. |
| USC -11, 2u |
Ohio State @ USC. Another case of Pac 10 dominance vs. Big 10. This game will not be close. |
| FAU +17 |
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State. FAU isn’t really that bad; the way Texas crushed them was due in a large part to their coach’s stupid comments inciting Texas before the game. Michigan State isn’t that good. Did I mention they’re Big 10? |
| Western Kentucky +28 | Western Kentucky @ Alabama. I don’t see any reason why Alabama should be motivated by this game. Of course they’ll win, but Western Kentucky is not as bad as this spread indicates. |
| East Carolina -13 |
East Carolina @ Tulane. East Carolina has every motivation to crush the remaining teams on its schedule; its into its Conference USA schedule now with the exception of a game against Virginia in a few weeks. They’ve got 2 quality wins but they’ll have to keep on racking up the scores to stay in the BCS hunt. |
Week 2 picks
Well, week 1 wasn’t bad, I’m up 4.7 units in these hypothetical matchups. Bravely onward to week 2! First, I’d like to note I can’t pick my favorite team against the spread, Troy, because their game with LSU has been called off until November 15, due to hurricanes or some other feeble excuse like that. Hurricanes! Far as I’m concerned, first thing the National Guard should do when they come into a flooded city is put sandbags around the college football stadium, to make sure the turf is ready for Saturday’s game. Then they should sandbag the area around the parking lot, and the road leading to the stadium, so everyone can get to the game on Saturday. Anyway, on to this week’s picks.
| Oregon -35.5, 2u |
Utah State @ Oregon. I’m going to this game and plan to watch the Ducks feast on the bones of their fallen enemy. Seriously, Utah State is rated worst out of all 120 teams, we just thrashed the Huskies by 34 points, I’m pretty sure we can do the same thing plus get a safety to beat the spread here. |
| Marshall +21, 1u |
Marshall @ Wisconsin. We are: Marshall! We are: Marshall! Marshall’s not a great team but the Big 10 sucks and Wisconsin is not as good as people say they are. Keep repeating this until you believe it. |
| Florida -23, 2u |
Miami @ Florida. The two schools play this big intrastate rivalry game that apparently hasn’t happened in something like 20 years. Predicted result: Miami loses by lots of points. Their school is still rebuilding, Florida just beat Hawaii by 50 points and the team will be motivated to rack up points because 1) it helps them with in-state recruiting and 2) it gives them a chance to pad T-bag’s stats for a chance at a second Heisman. |
| Georgia -24, 2u |
Central Michigan @ Georgia. SEC dominance versus the MAC. I’d take this spread at 31, too. |
| BYU -9.5, 2u |
BYU @ Washington. This seems like a safe pick. Hard to tell how good BYU is yet but we know Washington is terrible. Sure, the Ducks played well last week but we would have played well against a high-school team, too. BYU will give a repeat performance on Saturday. |
| Oklahoma State -15.5 |
Houston @ Oklahoma State. As bottom-feeding teams go, Houston’s not awful. They even go to bowl games occasionally. But OSU is really on a roll. I’d be surprised if it was anything less than a 3-touchdown game. |
| Oklahoma -22, 1u |
Cincinatti @ Oklahoma. I’d put this pick down for 2 units or more, but I really don’t know how good Cincinatti is this year. They played well last year but they’ve lost a quarterback. When in doubt, I pick Oklahoma. |
| South Florida -13.5, 2u |
USF @ UCF. It’s civil war when directional Florida goes head to head! Again, I’d like this game for 3 touchdowns, much less two. |
| Oregon State +15, 1u |
Oregon State @ Penn. State. OK so yes, I’m aware that the Beavers lost to Stanford. Stanford. But Stanford has been steadily improving. And the Beavers really beat themselves that game. They came in expecting the Cardinal to roll. They’ll have no such illusions about Penn. State. This is honestly an iffy pick, but I feel obligated to pick the Beavers every now and then after the endless crap I gave their fans this week. |
| Texas Tech -10, 1u |
Texas Tech @ Nevada. I don’t understand why the spread is so close here. Tech is shaping up to another stellar year and Nevada’s a middle-of-the-road non BCS school. Seems easy on paper … this seems like such an easy pick that perhaps I’m missing something here. |
Fun observations for the week: Wow, East Carolina’s only a seven point dog to West Virginia? In other silly matchups, notice that Bowling Green is favored by 5 over Minnesota (bet that decision to fire your coach after the 2006 season is looking pretty stupid now, isn’t it Gopher fans?) and Texas A&M is only a 2.5 point favorite over New Mexico.
No comments[UPDATED] Week 11 picks
Wow, it’s already week 11? I am seriously screwed for final exams, thanks to all this time spent with football. Anyway, I was on fire for last weekend’s picks. I went 7 for 9 in picks but the bets I lost were tiny. Also, I lucked out and got Michigan at -3 1/2 instead of -4 so I won the bet when they came back against MSU and won by 4. Result: Up 12.46 units for the week. Oh: One note here. GridironPolitics favorite Troy State does play this week, but it’s against provisional 1A team Western Kentucky, so the sportsbooks don’t have any lines. If I find a line later this week, I’ll bet it and put it up here.
On to this week: [Changes of bets and lines are striked, new bets/lines are in bold.]
| Wake Forest +9, 1u |
Wake Forest @ Clemson. Wake is really not that bad of a team, and Clemson is a perennial underachiever. I bet the Tigers win this game, but I’m happy to take the underdog by anything over a touchdown here. |
| Miami -3 1/2, 1u |
Virginia @ Miami. Wow, I never thought I’d be betting on the Hurricanes. Virginia has been lucky to squeak by with a lot of close games, while Miami’s QB delivered the most awful performance ever against North Carolina State: 14 pass attempts, one completion, three interceptions. That’s right. Three times the interceptions as completions. But I don’t think he can possibly play another game that bad, and therefore, his performance last week is dragging down a line that should otherwise be 7 or so. |
| Air Force -2 1/2, 3u |
Air Force @ Notre Dame. Alright, I know, Navy beat Air Force then barely sneaks by the Irish in triple overtime a few weeks later. That’s fine, but the Air Force team of this week could whip Navy of Week 10. And the Irish are really, really good at losing. |
| Arizona State |
Arizona State @ UCLA. OK, so the Ducks beat up on the Sun Devils, but they’re still a great team. I was worried the whole game about them coming back and beating us. UCLA, while perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, is horribly coached and very inconsistent. I bet against them in this spot every time. Update: Didn’t bet this in time to get it at 6 1/2, so I had to settle for 7. |
| Auburn |
Auburn @ Georgia. Auburn is a monster team on the road. Georgia just sneaked by Troy (44 - 34). Yes, I’m a huge fanboy of Troy, but still, failing to beat the spread against a mid-major is a problem for a 7-2 SEC team. Auburn will thrash the Bulldogs here. Line got better here. |
| Washington State -10 1/2, 2u |
Stanford @ Washington State. Playing at Martin Stadium in Eastern Washington is really, really tough. It’s very cold this time of year, the crowd is boisterous and the visiting team gets unlucky very often. Arizona State barely got by against Wazzu a few weeks ago in a similar spot; Stanford will lose by two touchdowns here. |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri. TAMU has no way of stopping Missouri in this game. They got killed by Oklahoma and they’ll have similar problems vs. Missouri’s potent offense. Also, I bet against A&M until coach Fran gets fired or Jamey tells me not to. Update: Jamey told me not to. See comments below for more info, but I’m playing A&M to beat the spread (and lose.) | |
| Michigan |
Michigan @ Wisconsin. On paper, this is probably a bad bet. Michigan barely came back against MSU, and Wisconsin kept in close against OSU before tanking late in the third quarter. But Michigan wants the win here more than Wisconsin - after all, the Wolverines are the only team not named OSU that still has a chance at the Big 10 Championship. |
-5, 2u |
Well, I’ve had good luck the last three weeks. After tanking in week 6, I’ve posted three solid weeks. I went 3 and 3 in Week 7, 4 and 3 in Week 8 and 4 and 3 this last weekend.That’s 11 and 9 for a three week record, which I’m very happy with*.
*So happy, in fact, that I end a sentence with a preposition.
Anyway, here are this week’s picks.
| Navy ML +150, 2u |
Navy @ Notre Dame. Navy hasn’t won a game against the Irish in a bazillion years. Navy’s got a solid offense, even if their defense is terrible. I’m betting Navy puts up six touchdowns, and despite their awful defense, the Irish won’t be able to locate the end zone often enough to keep it close. |
| Oregon -7, 2u |
Arizona State @ Oregon. Autzen is a horrible place for opposing teams. I went to the game vs. USC, and MAN was it loud. The crowd is really into it this year, and our defense just feeds off all that noise. Arizona State is a pretty good team this year, but their QB, Carpenter, hurt his thumb in the fourth quarter vs. Cal and apparently he showed up to practice wearing a thumb brace. I figure that might affect his throwing, and with the performance of our D-backs, that means we get a few picks out of the deal. Also, we have this QB named Dixon and I think he’s pretty swell. For the record, I really, really don’t like the spread of a touchdown here, but I think Oregon pulls it off more than 50 percent of the time. |
| Michigan -4, 1u ML -170, 3u |
Michigan @ Michigan State. Michigan has been on fire since their losses vs. spread offenses. I’m a little worried because Hart has been out for a few games with injuries, after carrying the ball 200 times this season. But the Wolverines have the momentum and the motivation: If they win out, the Nov. 17 matchup vs. Ohio State will determine who wins the Big 10, and give Michigan a chance to foil OSU’s chances at the national championship. I’m betting on the moneyline here because I’m not convinced Michigan will win by more than a field goal … I just think they’re going to win. |
| Oklahoma -21, 2u |
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma. As Jamey notes below in the comments, Stoops has no qualms about running up the score, even if margins of victory are not considered by the BCS computers. (I guarantee that the human voters pay attention to the margins.) A&M is awful this year and Oklahoma has everything to prove - after all, the Ducks are still ahead of them in the BCS ;-). |
| Wisconsin +15 1/2, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Ohio State. OK, so PSU couldn’t take out the Buckeyes last week. And I doubt the Badgers will, either. But despite OSU’s stingy defense, I just don’t see Wisconsin losing by more than two touchdowns here. |
| Missouri - 3 1/2, 2u |
Missouri @ Colorado. The spread is low here because Colorado has snuck up on a few good teams. They are not a great team yet, they just prey on the unprepared. Missouri is paying attention to this one, and they are not Texas Tech (remember, Missouri’s win over Tech probably caused the downward spiral that made the Red Raiders lose to Colorado the next weekend.) Missouri wins here by 10 at least. |
| Troy +16 1/2, 3u ML 700, 1u |
Troy @ Georgia. Does my betting streak with the Trojans come to an end here? Georgia is coming off a huge win over Florida and they’ve got another big game next weekend vs. Auburn. This weekend’s game is commonly referred to as a trap game - a game where the underdog is not as bad as many think, and the favorite is looking ahead to the next game instead of treating their competition seriously. I think Troy keeps it close here. I also think there’s an outside chance they upset the Bulldogs (Oklahoma State, anyone?) so I’ll take the moneyline as well as the spread. |