Archive for the 'betting' Category
Week 3 picks
Man, I’m getting so good at this theoretical picking maybe I should move to Vegas and actually place bets! I’m up 2.6 units this week, for a grand total of 7.3 units. So if I were actually betting, and each unit represented 1 percent of my bankroll, I’d be up 7.3 percent! Better than the stock market, at least.
| Kansas +3.5, 2u |
Kansas @ South Florida. I just don’t buy the South Florida hype; I mean the Ducks destroyed them in last year’s bowl game, they played their first game against a creampuff and they went down to the wire with Central Florida last week. Sure, that was a rivalry game, but I just don’t think they’re going to beat Kansas. |
| Oregon -8, 2u |
Oregon @ Purdue. Classic case of an overmatched Big 10 team vs. a good Pac 10 team. Duck’s defense is better than people give it credit for and Purdue has never seen a spread offense like this one. |
| Georgia -7, 2u |
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia is good, Spurrier’s team has been mediocre for the past few years. I pick Georgia here every time. |
| Oregon State -12.5 |
Hawaii @ OSU. Hawaii is terrible on the road and eventually OSU will win a game. Really. |
| Penn State -27.5 |
Penn State @ Syracuse. Syracuse is the worst team in the Big East and might be in contention for worst team in a BCS conference. Penn State, in my opinion, is better than OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin. Penn State wins big here. |
| Michigan -2 |
Michigan @ Notre Dame. I bet against Notre Dame because they suck, just like they did last year. The end. |
| USC -11, 2u |
Ohio State @ USC. Another case of Pac 10 dominance vs. Big 10. This game will not be close. |
| FAU +17 |
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State. FAU isn’t really that bad; the way Texas crushed them was due in a large part to their coach’s stupid comments inciting Texas before the game. Michigan State isn’t that good. Did I mention they’re Big 10? |
| Western Kentucky +28 | Western Kentucky @ Alabama. I don’t see any reason why Alabama should be motivated by this game. Of course they’ll win, but Western Kentucky is not as bad as this spread indicates. |
| East Carolina -13 |
East Carolina @ Tulane. East Carolina has every motivation to crush the remaining teams on its schedule; its into its Conference USA schedule now with the exception of a game against Virginia in a few weeks. They’ve got 2 quality wins but they’ll have to keep on racking up the scores to stay in the BCS hunt. |
[UPDATED] Week 11 picks
Wow, it’s already week 11? I am seriously screwed for final exams, thanks to all this time spent with football. Anyway, I was on fire for last weekend’s picks. I went 7 for 9 in picks but the bets I lost were tiny. Also, I lucked out and got Michigan at -3 1/2 instead of -4 so I won the bet when they came back against MSU and won by 4. Result: Up 12.46 units for the week. Oh: One note here. GridironPolitics favorite Troy State does play this week, but it’s against provisional 1A team Western Kentucky, so the sportsbooks don’t have any lines. If I find a line later this week, I’ll bet it and put it up here.
On to this week: [Changes of bets and lines are striked, new bets/lines are in bold.]
| Wake Forest +9, 1u |
Wake Forest @ Clemson. Wake is really not that bad of a team, and Clemson is a perennial underachiever. I bet the Tigers win this game, but I’m happy to take the underdog by anything over a touchdown here. |
| Miami -3 1/2, 1u |
Virginia @ Miami. Wow, I never thought I’d be betting on the Hurricanes. Virginia has been lucky to squeak by with a lot of close games, while Miami’s QB delivered the most awful performance ever against North Carolina State: 14 pass attempts, one completion, three interceptions. That’s right. Three times the interceptions as completions. But I don’t think he can possibly play another game that bad, and therefore, his performance last week is dragging down a line that should otherwise be 7 or so. |
| Air Force -2 1/2, 3u |
Air Force @ Notre Dame. Alright, I know, Navy beat Air Force then barely sneaks by the Irish in triple overtime a few weeks later. That’s fine, but the Air Force team of this week could whip Navy of Week 10. And the Irish are really, really good at losing. |
| Arizona State |
Arizona State @ UCLA. OK, so the Ducks beat up on the Sun Devils, but they’re still a great team. I was worried the whole game about them coming back and beating us. UCLA, while perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, is horribly coached and very inconsistent. I bet against them in this spot every time. Update: Didn’t bet this in time to get it at 6 1/2, so I had to settle for 7. |
| Auburn |
Auburn @ Georgia. Auburn is a monster team on the road. Georgia just sneaked by Troy (44 - 34). Yes, I’m a huge fanboy of Troy, but still, failing to beat the spread against a mid-major is a problem for a 7-2 SEC team. Auburn will thrash the Bulldogs here. Line got better here. |
| Washington State -10 1/2, 2u |
Stanford @ Washington State. Playing at Martin Stadium in Eastern Washington is really, really tough. It’s very cold this time of year, the crowd is boisterous and the visiting team gets unlucky very often. Arizona State barely got by against Wazzu a few weeks ago in a similar spot; Stanford will lose by two touchdowns here. |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri. TAMU has no way of stopping Missouri in this game. They got killed by Oklahoma and they’ll have similar problems vs. Missouri’s potent offense. Also, I bet against A&M until coach Fran gets fired or Jamey tells me not to. Update: Jamey told me not to. See comments below for more info, but I’m playing A&M to beat the spread (and lose.) | |
| Michigan |
Michigan @ Wisconsin. On paper, this is probably a bad bet. Michigan barely came back against MSU, and Wisconsin kept in close against OSU before tanking late in the third quarter. But Michigan wants the win here more than Wisconsin - after all, the Wolverines are the only team not named OSU that still has a chance at the Big 10 Championship. |
-5, 2u |
Well, I’ve had good luck the last three weeks. After tanking in week 6, I’ve posted three solid weeks. I went 3 and 3 in Week 7, 4 and 3 in Week 8 and 4 and 3 this last weekend.That’s 11 and 9 for a three week record, which I’m very happy with*.
*So happy, in fact, that I end a sentence with a preposition.
Anyway, here are this week’s picks.
| Navy ML +150, 2u |
Navy @ Notre Dame. Navy hasn’t won a game against the Irish in a bazillion years. Navy’s got a solid offense, even if their defense is terrible. I’m betting Navy puts up six touchdowns, and despite their awful defense, the Irish won’t be able to locate the end zone often enough to keep it close. |
| Oregon -7, 2u |
Arizona State @ Oregon. Autzen is a horrible place for opposing teams. I went to the game vs. USC, and MAN was it loud. The crowd is really into it this year, and our defense just feeds off all that noise. Arizona State is a pretty good team this year, but their QB, Carpenter, hurt his thumb in the fourth quarter vs. Cal and apparently he showed up to practice wearing a thumb brace. I figure that might affect his throwing, and with the performance of our D-backs, that means we get a few picks out of the deal. Also, we have this QB named Dixon and I think he’s pretty swell. For the record, I really, really don’t like the spread of a touchdown here, but I think Oregon pulls it off more than 50 percent of the time. |
| Michigan -4, 1u ML -170, 3u |
Michigan @ Michigan State. Michigan has been on fire since their losses vs. spread offenses. I’m a little worried because Hart has been out for a few games with injuries, after carrying the ball 200 times this season. But the Wolverines have the momentum and the motivation: If they win out, the Nov. 17 matchup vs. Ohio State will determine who wins the Big 10, and give Michigan a chance to foil OSU’s chances at the national championship. I’m betting on the moneyline here because I’m not convinced Michigan will win by more than a field goal … I just think they’re going to win. |
| Oklahoma -21, 2u |
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma. As Jamey notes below in the comments, Stoops has no qualms about running up the score, even if margins of victory are not considered by the BCS computers. (I guarantee that the human voters pay attention to the margins.) A&M is awful this year and Oklahoma has everything to prove - after all, the Ducks are still ahead of them in the BCS ;-). |
| Wisconsin +15 1/2, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Ohio State. OK, so PSU couldn’t take out the Buckeyes last week. And I doubt the Badgers will, either. But despite OSU’s stingy defense, I just don’t see Wisconsin losing by more than two touchdowns here. |
| Missouri - 3 1/2, 2u |
Missouri @ Colorado. The spread is low here because Colorado has snuck up on a few good teams. They are not a great team yet, they just prey on the unprepared. Missouri is paying attention to this one, and they are not Texas Tech (remember, Missouri’s win over Tech probably caused the downward spiral that made the Red Raiders lose to Colorado the next weekend.) Missouri wins here by 10 at least. |
| Troy +16 1/2, 3u ML 700, 1u |
Troy @ Georgia. Does my betting streak with the Trojans come to an end here? Georgia is coming off a huge win over Florida and they’ve got another big game next weekend vs. Auburn. This weekend’s game is commonly referred to as a trap game - a game where the underdog is not as bad as many think, and the favorite is looking ahead to the next game instead of treating their competition seriously. I think Troy keeps it close here. I also think there’s an outside chance they upset the Bulldogs (Oklahoma State, anyone?) so I’ll take the moneyline as well as the spread. |
Week 9 picks
| Oregon -2 1/2, 2u |
USC @ Oregon. This is the first time in the regular season USC has been a dog since their 2004 thrashing of Auburn. Will history repeat itself? This Duck fan hopes not. Factors favoring Oregon here: Our offense is awesome. Homefield advantage at Autzen. Dixon being consistent and not cracking under pressure. Jonathan Stewart. USC going down to the wire against bad opponents. Chip Kelley. Factors favoring USC here: Oregon’s injuries finally catching up to them. Number 2 defense (though who has USC played to get those defensive numbers?) USC’s ability to come through with big games (see their 38-0 win over the Irish.) All in all, I take the Ducks, but I’m glad I got on this line before it moved to -3. |
| South Florida -4, 2u |
South Florida @ Connecticut. UConn is not a great football team, but they’ve had a great season so far, thanks to patsies on the schedule and two lucky officiating calls that make the Big East wish for some of those quality replay officials from the Oregon/Oklahoma game of 2006. USF is quite good, and despite their loss against Rutgers, this is a quality ball squad who should cover, unless they’ve lost their motivation with last week’s defeat. |
| Texas Tech -13, 1u |
Colorado @ Texas Tech. There’s a lot of reasons to stay away from this game. Colorado’s pretty decent, Tech got hammered against Missouri last week, etc. But Tech is still a bit underrated, so I think the spread is off enough here to justify putting money on them. |
| VT -3, 2u |
Boston College @ Virginia Tech. Man I hate the ACC. I’m probably just betting this game because I want BC to lose so my Ducks advance. Neither team is really that good. Washington could probably beat them and I’m sure teams like Texas Tech, Illinois and Rutgers could walk all over them. Regardless, I pick the home team here and cross my fingers. |
| Wake Forest -5 1/2, 2u |
UNC @ Wake Forest. Wake is the defending ACC champ, and not a bad football team at all. UNC is, at best, inconsistent. They’ve been doing a good job of beating the spread lately, but winning games is something else, and I just can’t see this game settling for less than a touchdown. |
| Kansas -2 1/2, 2u |
Kansas @ Texas A&M. According to Jamey, a friend of mine who’s a diehard Aggie fan, I should bet against A&M every game of this season. Makes sense. They’re a bad football team this year, they make other teams look great when they play against them (for instance, Miami) and they’re overrated after a win against a tilted Nebraska squad. The Jayhawks aren’t bad, either. Advantage: Kansas. |
| Troy -4, 2u |
Troy @ Arkansas State. I know, I know, I bet Troy every week, no matter what. I’m a little worried this week, though. Arkansas State has won four out of the last five games, and this is one of the toughest conference games the Trojans face this year. Regardless, Troy has done me proud, so I bet them until I get burned. |