Week 5 update
So after waiting the better part of the week for the line to move on a few of these games, I’ve decided to suspend three of my picks for the week and put a caveat on a few others. I tried to be pretty clear in each case that I wouldn’t bet until the line shifted. Well, it hasn’t, so here are my changes:
Miss.St/South Carolina : I wanted Mississippi State to have a more generous spread than the two touchdowns the bettors were originally ceding to the Gamecocks. Instead, the line’s gone down to 13 1/2. I can’t recommend this game, and I won’t be betting it. It’s probably 50/50, but even money is a loser in sports betting.
Arizona St/Stanford : Again, the line has barely moved here all week. Some books have the Sun Devils by 14 1/2, the others have stayed at 14. Again, I think the Cardinal might lose by less than two TDs but it’s not a sure thing. I would have bet this had it gotten to 17, but at the current spread I’ll be staying away this weekend.
Notre Dame/Purdue : The line simply hasn’t shifted here the way I thought it would. The spread is hovering between 22 and 22 1/2 in favor of Purdue. The Irish clearly lose this game, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they go down beyond the 3 touchdown mark. I’d hold off on betting this one, unless it’s in favor of the Irish. Then again, the money might not be safe on Notre Dame either … they’ve certainly proved themselves capable of losing games by larger margins.
Those are the only three bets that completely go against my earlier recommendations. In a few others games, however, I would recommend slight modifications if you haven’t bet yet already:
Penn St/Illinois: I am thinking more and more that Zook’s team wins straight out over Penn State here. The spread of 3 is kind of silly in this case. I was waiting for it to go to 4+ but it looks like Penn State will only be favored by a field goal. So why put down $110 to win $100 when you can just bet $100 on Illinois winning it outright for a shot at $140? Updated bet: Moneyline at +140 on Illinois. 2u.
Auburn/Florida: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida last year. They probably won’t do it again this year, but if Auburn keeps within the 18-point spread, expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I’d recommend parlaying the +18 spread with the under, which is currently hovering around 54 1/2. Updated bet: Parlay Auburn +18/Under 54 1/2. Odds of 2.65/1, 2u.
California/Oregon: As I stated before, I don’t bet against the Ducks. But what I didn’t mention is that Oregon rarely loses close games. They’ve only had two sub 9 point losses since November of 2004. The reason I point this out? Picking Cal at +6 (which is currently the spread) is a bad deal. Just bet the moneyline for them to win out, if you feel like betting against Oregon. If you don’t want to go against Oregon, do what I suggested earlier and parlay the spread with the over. Updated bet: Moneyline at +205 on Cal. 1u.