Week 5 Picks
Well, I didn’t do bad for my first time around on picks. I won 7 and lost 6, although two of those wins (Oregon and Troy) would have been pushes if I had to win by the spread I set myself instead of the number on major sportsbooks. My losses, though, were very ugly. A&M got killed by Miami, Tulsa wasn’t able to keep it close against Oklahoma in the second half, New Mexico State got clobbered, Texas Tech lost a close one despite getting almost 700 yards of offense, Wyoming lost, and Nebraska squeaked one out against an inferior Ball St. Team. But I feel very good about my Big 10 instincts at the moment, as Michigan came through over Penn. State and MSU beat up on Notre Dame for the Irish’s 6th consecutive loss since last year.
New for this week: Not all picks are created equal, and if I were really betting on these games instead of just picking numbers, I would bet more on the games where I thought I had an edge. So, let’s assume for the purposes of this blog that I have a bankroll that is budgeted only for sportsbetting, and that I have divided that bankroll up into 50 equal pieces, so that a bad week doesn’t wipe out my entire account. I will value my picks by expressing how many bankroll units I would bet on them (usually between 1 and 4). So Oklahoma -23 4u means I’ll be betting 4 units of my bankroll on Oklahoma winning by more than 23 points.
NOTE: Lines that are struck out (like this) are no longer recommended. See the Week 5 updates post for more information.
| West Virginia -7, 2u | West Virginia/South Florida. I really like South Florida, and I’ve had some fun bets with them this season. But West Virginia is a better team and is a huge running/passing threat. The spread on this one is close because South Florida plays at home, and there is certainly an outside chance that USF pulls the upset here. I’m tempted to bet the spread then take South Florida on the money line if I can find 3:1 odds anywhere. |
| Wisconsin -7, 1u | Michigan State at Wisconsin. I feel conflicted about this game, much like the West Virginia game. Michigan State is surging and Wisconsin is barely winning every game they play, even against rotten teams. But if you look at the history between the two teams, the favorite has covered the spread that last 6 out of 8 times. Also, while MSU is surging, they are 3 and 13 ATS most recently and Wisconsin is 12-4-1 ATS. The math says Wisconsin, but placing a bet straight up on MSU against the odds in case of an upset might be the smart money. |
| Notre Dame/Purdue. There’s no question that Purdue will win this game. The question is by how much, and whether Notre Dame shows up with an offense. The spread right now is at 21. I will not bet this one unless and until the idiots drive down the line by betting on the Irish. | |
| Duke +24, 2u | Duke/Miami. For all its failures, Duke is remarkably adept at covering the spread. That’s probably because they lose so often, the spread is abysmal, such as this 24 point one. I’m betting it gets even juicier as the squares jack up Miami later this week. |
| Miss.St/South Carolina. I like Mississippi State. They started off strong this year with a good first half against LSU before melting down, and they had an impressive win against Auburn. SC will win this one but they won’t cover the spread, especially if it moves later this week when people bet more on the favorite. | |
| Michigan -16 1/2, 1u | Michigan/Northwestern. I don’t know how many points Michigan racks up here. Their D might hold Northwestern to 0. Bet 2 units on the under if it’s reasonable, as both teams have a history of covering the under. |
| Syracuse -2, 2u | Syracuse/Miami (Ohio). Fresh off a huge victory against Louisville, Syracuse has a lot to gain by making a statement here. The spread is probably wrong, it should be at -7 I think, but in any case, the Orange should cover. |
| California +4 1/2 | Cal/Oregon. I would never, ever bet against my ducks, but I can’t advise others in good conscience to favor Oregon here. I’ll probably bet Oregon with the over, as both teams will put up tons of points in the 40 percent of the time that Oregon wins this one. |
| Alabama + 2 1/2, 3u | Alabama/FSU. I just don’t see the Tide throwing the game here against the ‘Noles. Yes, they lost to Arkansas but Florida State is not a great team this year. Bear in mind I have a deep and bitter hatred for overrated ACC teams (which is pretty much every team save for Clemson and BC), but I think Alabama is safe here. I think the spread breaks better later this week when Florida State fans bet heavily, but there are plenty of Alabama fans out there too, so perhaps it’s best to snatch up this spread right away. |
| Auburn +18, 1u | Auburn/Florida. Auburn was obviously overrated at the start of the season, but perhaps they aren’t as bad as many view them now. They had a nice win against New Mexico State last week, and after Florida’s scare to Miss. St., it’s possible this game will be close. Put a unit on the under if you get a chance. |
| Illinois +3, 2u | Penn St/Ill. Illinois is a decent team this year, and Penn State has been overrated for weeks. Wait for this line to get bigger late week before betting it, though. |
| Oklahoma -21 1/2, 4u | Oklahoma has racked up +50 points in its first four games. Stoops likes to run up the score for the polls, a factor I didn’t consider when I picked Tulsa on the spread last week. This is my best bet of the week. |
| Tulsa -18 1/2, 2u | UAB/Tulsa. I’m betting the Golden Hurricanes bounce back after last week’s loss. They’ve got a powerful offense and should dominate all their conference games this year. |
| Clemson -3, 2u | Clemson/GT. People gave Georgia Tech credit earlier this season for their shellacking of Notre Dame. It turns out that most high schools could beat the Irish, and GT has proved through a few key losses that they suck. Clemson is 4-0, which may not mean much in its conference but is still a nice start. |
| BYU -5 1/2, 1u | BYU/New Mexico. I’ve been on the wrong sign of the Mormons for two weeks straight, after picking them to beat Tulsa (they didn’t) then picking Air Force to beat them (they schooled the academy.) I think this is an easy win here, but I’m not confident putting more than 1 unit down until BYU stops screwing me. |
| Arizona St/Stanford. Stanford is not very good, and I have no idea whether the Sun Devils have talent or just an easy pre-conference schedule. However, they showed a lot of heart in the second quarter vs. Oregon. If Stanford brings intensity to this game and the crowd gets in it, I pick this for the upset of the week. If betting the spread, wait until Friday or Saturday morning for a juicier line. | |
| Cincinatti -14, 3u | Cincinatti/San Diego State. I’ve liked Cincinatti ever since they killed Oregon State. This team is 4-0 and headed for greatness in a few years. For now, expect them to cover the spread each week until they combust later against West Virginia, South Florida or Louisville. |
| Troy -12 1/2, 3u | UL Monroe/Troy. I really like Troy. They are a team on the way up, despite a relatively new presence in division 1-A. They’ve been consistently covering the spread. Expect this week to be no different. |