[UPDATED] Week 11 picks
Wow, it’s already week 11? I am seriously screwed for final exams, thanks to all this time spent with football. Anyway, I was on fire for last weekend’s picks. I went 7 for 9 in picks but the bets I lost were tiny. Also, I lucked out and got Michigan at -3 1/2 instead of -4 so I won the bet when they came back against MSU and won by 4. Result: Up 12.46 units for the week. Oh: One note here. GridironPolitics favorite Troy State does play this week, but it’s against provisional 1A team Western Kentucky, so the sportsbooks don’t have any lines. If I find a line later this week, I’ll bet it and put it up here.
On to this week: [Changes of bets and lines are striked, new bets/lines are in bold.]
| Wake Forest +9, 1u |
Wake Forest @ Clemson. Wake is really not that bad of a team, and Clemson is a perennial underachiever. I bet the Tigers win this game, but I’m happy to take the underdog by anything over a touchdown here. |
| Miami -3 1/2, 1u |
Virginia @ Miami. Wow, I never thought I’d be betting on the Hurricanes. Virginia has been lucky to squeak by with a lot of close games, while Miami’s QB delivered the most awful performance ever against North Carolina State: 14 pass attempts, one completion, three interceptions. That’s right. Three times the interceptions as completions. But I don’t think he can possibly play another game that bad, and therefore, his performance last week is dragging down a line that should otherwise be 7 or so. |
| Air Force -2 1/2, 3u |
Air Force @ Notre Dame. Alright, I know, Navy beat Air Force then barely sneaks by the Irish in triple overtime a few weeks later. That’s fine, but the Air Force team of this week could whip Navy of Week 10. And the Irish are really, really good at losing. |
| Arizona State |
Arizona State @ UCLA. OK, so the Ducks beat up on the Sun Devils, but they’re still a great team. I was worried the whole game about them coming back and beating us. UCLA, while perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, is horribly coached and very inconsistent. I bet against them in this spot every time. Update: Didn’t bet this in time to get it at 6 1/2, so I had to settle for 7. |
| Auburn |
Auburn @ Georgia. Auburn is a monster team on the road. Georgia just sneaked by Troy (44 - 34). Yes, I’m a huge fanboy of Troy, but still, failing to beat the spread against a mid-major is a problem for a 7-2 SEC team. Auburn will thrash the Bulldogs here. Line got better here. |
| Washington State -10 1/2, 2u |
Stanford @ Washington State. Playing at Martin Stadium in Eastern Washington is really, really tough. It’s very cold this time of year, the crowd is boisterous and the visiting team gets unlucky very often. Arizona State barely got by against Wazzu a few weeks ago in a similar spot; Stanford will lose by two touchdowns here. |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri. TAMU has no way of stopping Missouri in this game. They got killed by Oklahoma and they’ll have similar problems vs. Missouri’s potent offense. Also, I bet against A&M until coach Fran gets fired or Jamey tells me not to. Update: Jamey told me not to. See comments below for more info, but I’m playing A&M to beat the spread (and lose.) | |
| Michigan |
Michigan @ Wisconsin. On paper, this is probably a bad bet. Michigan barely came back against MSU, and Wisconsin kept in close against OSU before tanking late in the third quarter. But Michigan wants the win here more than Wisconsin - after all, the Wolverines are the only team not named OSU that still has a chance at the Big 10 Championship. |
-5, 2u |
I think A&M covers that spread against Missouri, though they’ll still lose and it may get covered with a garbage score (see Kansas game). Notre Dame pulls off a victory and your Ducks will be perfectly fine after OSU beats Kansas this week. The cowboys have only hurt themselves this year - they are better than most teams in the Big 12. Though they do lack some defense.
I have to agree with your other pics, even if Miami makes me nervous.
Wright sucks.
Hmmm … you think A&M covers, huh? Even though it’s an away game? What’s your rationale for Notre Dame winning the air force game? Also, you don’t think the Kansas offense blows through OSU? I know OSU is capable of winning (just like UCLA, Oregon State, etc, in the PAC 10) I just doubt they show up.
A&M will pay very close attention to Missouri’s tight ends since they were kindly reminded of the position by Oklahoma last Saturday. The players that want to play under Fran will be playing fiercly since they don’t have much time left to try and help the poor dumb bastard out. I think a majority of the defense still wants to play - and key people on offense are still interested. Missouri probably wins, but it will be close. Kansas hasn’t played a single team worth a damn all year. There are only three so far that have had any talent at all. Colorado, Kstate, and A&M. Something is wrong with both A&M and Colorado - but they still kept it close. Kstate is a rivalry so I don’t know how to gage that. Nebraska doesn’t count because, well… Callahan is the only coach worse than Franchione. I think OSU is better than all of the aforementioned teams by a long shot - they just lack confidence. You can see it when they start to collapse late. I think they have the talent at receiver to beat Talib and for once, their opponent won’t mount a stunning comeback (A&M, horns).
On 2nd thought, you’re right, ND sucks.