Gridiron Politics

Well, the New York Times makes the blog two posts in a row! This time, the Grey Lady ran an op-ed from Geraldine A. Ferraro on why superdelegates know what’s best for the Democratic party. You might ask yourself, ‘Who is this woman and why do I care?’ Oh, well she was the Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 1984, playing sidekick to Walter Mondale as the two offered themselves as sacrificial lambs to the Reagan juggernaut. You might think with her experience losing to a moderate Republican, she would be happy to note that voters have turned out in the primaries this year in record numbers. You would think she would be happy that independents and even some Republicans are casting their primary vote for a Democratic candidate.

Nope. She’d rather keep the Democratic party as an insular group of labor unions, feminists and activists instead of broadening the tent and giving a voice to people who are dissastisfied with the dishonesty and hubris of the Republican party. Ms. Ferraro, I changed my registration to Democrat this year after being a Republican since I turned 18. But apparently, I’m not good enough for your party. Luckily, the superdelegates will be able to take care of my vote. Here are some choice excerpts from her article:

… [T]he delegate totals from primaries and caucuses do not necessarily reflect the will of rank-and-file Democrats. Most Democrats have not been heard from at the polls. We have all been impressed by the turnout for this year’s primaries — clearly both candidates have excited and engaged the party’s membership — but, even so, turnout for primaries and caucuses is notoriously low. It would be shocking if 30 percent of registered Democrats have participated. If that is the case, we could end up with a nominee who has been actively supported by, at most, 15 percent of registered Democrats. That’s hardly a grassroots mandate.

Translation: While Obama is on a 11-0 winning streak, remember that some states that favor Hillary haven’t voted yet (can you tell she’s a Hillary supporter?) Oh, and despite incredible turnouts for state primaries this year, the people who have voted are unable to create a “grassroots mandate” because the poor people who didn’t bother to participate in the process are now disenfranchised. We continue …

More important, although many states like New York have closed primaries in which only enrolled Democrats are allowed to vote, in many other states Republicans and independents can make the difference by voting in Democratic primaries or caucuses. In the Democratic primary in South Carolina, tens of thousands of Republicans and independents no doubt voted, many of them for Mr. Obama. The same rules prevail at the Iowa caucuses, in which Mr. Obama also triumphed. He won his delegates fair and square, but those delegates represent the wishes not only of grassroots Democrats, but also Republicans and independents. If rank-and-file Democrats should decide who the party’s nominee is, each state should pass a rule allowing only people who have been registered in the Democratic Party for a given time — not nonmembers or day-of registrants — to vote for the party’s nominee.

So Ferraro really believes that a candidate is stronger if you only allow people registered in your party to vote for them. Here’s a question for you: How can you possibly counter partisan politics and unite a country when your only measure of support until the day of the election is the votes of people who are voting for anyone with “Democrat” by their name, no matter how weak a candidate or whatever qualities he or she may have as an actual leader. I understand you don’t want your party’s agenda hijacked by an outsider; but even if you select a candidate through open primaries (like I wish Oregon did), a Democrat-In-Name-Only will never be selected in a Democratic primary because the voters themselves won’t select such a candidate.

Perhaps because I have endorsed Mrs. Clinton, I have noticed that most of the people complaining about the influence of the superdelegates are supporters of Mr. Obama. I can’t help thinking that their problem with the superdelegates may not be that they’re “unrepresentative,” but rather that they are perceived as disproportionately likely to support Mrs. Clinton. And I am watching, with great disappointment, people whom I respect in the Congress who endorsed Hillary Clinton — I assume because she was the leader they felt could best represent the party and lead the country — now switching to Barack Obama with the excuse that their constituents have spoken. I may be a cynic, but I’m a fairly knowledgeable political cynic. If Mr. Obama wins the nomination, those members are undoubtedly concerned that they would be inviting a primary challenge in their next re-election campaign by failing to support his candidacy.

Ferraro’s problem here is she thinks elected officials (who comprise the majority of the 796 superdelegates) are better than the Democratic voters that elected them. Truly, she speaks wisdom: It would be a terrible thing for a Congressman to be voted out of office for overriding the wishes of his constituents, wouldn’t it?

But if they are actually upset over the diminished clout of rank-and-file Democrats in the presidential nominating process, then I would love to see them agitating to force the party to seat the delegates elected by the voters in Florida and Michigan. In those two states, the votes of thousands of rank-and-file party members will not be counted because their states voted on dates earlier than those authorized by the national party. Because both states went strongly for Mrs. Clinton, standing up for the voices of grassroots Democrats in Florida and Michigan would prove the integrity of the superdelegate-bashers. The people of those states surely don’t deserve to be disenfranchised simply because the leaders of their state parties brought them to the polls on a day that had not been endorsed by the leaders of our national party — a slight the voters might not easily forget in November.

Nice rhetorical finish. Remember in the last paragraph, Ferraro was talking about the dilemma of elected officials when they like one candidate but their constituents like a different one. If they REALLY want to represent their constituents, she says, they would fight to get Florida and Michigan delegates seated. What? Excuse me? So let’s say I’m a congressman from Georgia. It’s my job to make sure that Florida and Michigan get a full say in the process, even though their states broke party rules and Obama wasn’t even on the BALLOT in either state? Certainly, her suggestion is the epitome of democracy in action. Now, I agree, Florida and Michigan delegates SHOULD be seated … once those states actually hold a fair election where both candidates play by the rules. Have each state hold a caucus, or even a new election, and make it a fair contest. But don’t go whining in the New York Times that 1) Primary voters don’t represent the party, 2) Congresspersons are being held hostage by their constituents, 3) Make Florida and Michigan count by breaking the rules.

It is a great mercy that Geraldine Ferraro never got a chance to serve a heartbeat away from the presidency. And with a little luck, the party elite she claims to represent won’t get a chance to ignore the voters and prop up Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

So the New York Times put out a big hit on McCain earlier this evening, giving conservatives a new reason to hate him and giving new life to Mike Huckabee’s Quixotic quest for the Republican nomination. This piece by the Times about McCain’s relationship with lobbyists hints at a sexual relationship with lobbyist Vicki Iseman. Which is fine if you’re John McCain the maverick U.S. Senator, but less fine when you’re trying to run for President, solidify your Republican base and reach out to independents so they don’t accidentally vote for Barack Obama.

The possibility of illicit sex probably won’t stop independents from voting for McCain, but close ties to a lobbyist and the subsequent favors he performed on her behalf might give them pause.

The close relationship with a lobbyist won’t be a problem for conservatives, but the prospect of
out of wedlock sex might send the Religious Right scurrying ever closer to Holy Huckabee.

But really, unless there are more developments, this story isn’t likely to be much of a problem in the immediate future for anyone not named Cindy McCain. By the way, Mrs. McCain, are you still proud of America now?

Now the piece by the Times doesn’t say as much as it implies. It appears from reading the story that the paper has been trying to get at this issue since December but has had to do extensive fact checking. It feels a bit rushed — Josh over at Talking Points Memo speculates that the Times had to get this before any other paper landed it. But there is quite a bit said about McCain and his questionable ethics, and it’s guaranteed to put the spotlight on the Republican frontrunner just as his party was ready to crown him king.

World Sports Exchange still has $100 shares of Huckabee selling for 0 dollars and $100 McCain shares trading at $93. But give it a few days and the Iseman story might grow new legs on Mike Huckabee’s campaign.

Obama crushed Clinton in the Potomac last night, winning DC with 75 percent of the vote to Hillary’s 24 percent; Maryland 59 to 36 and Virginia 64 to 35 percent. These are cheerful numbers if you’re an Obamaphile, and they spell trouble for Hillary unless she can eke out a win in Wisconsin or capture both Texas and ohio.

Over on World Sports Exchange, where you can buy and sell $100 futures on presidential candidates, Obama is selling for $71 and Clinton is at $24. What this means, in betting terms: For Obama, you risk $71 in order to win a $100 contract, or in other words, a profit of $29. So you’re risking $71 to win $29. In practical terms, then, Obama is more than a 2:1 favorite over Clinton that this point. For Clinton, you risk $24 to win $100, in other words, a gain of $76 if she pulls it off. To turn this into odds, it’s $24/$76; Hillary is a 3 to 1 underdog. These numbers obviously don’t match up because World Sports Exchange has to make a profit somewhere. But what it means is Obama is somewhere between a 2:1 to 3:1 favorite to win the Democratic Nomination.

According to NBC News, Obama has 1128 delegates and Clinton has 1009. This number is not including superdelegates, but the political wisdom here dictates that superdelegates will be hard pressed to line up behind a candidate who has a minority share of “regular” state delegates. In other words, if we get all the way to June and Obama has a 250 delegate lead on Obama, those 796 superdelegates will probably all throw their support behind Obama, rather than alienate the Democratic base by picking Clinton just because the party insiders like her more.

These all important superdelegates will also be swayed by which candidate has a larger share of actual votes gained from the electoral contests thus far. According to MSNBC’s blog First Read, Obama has 9.4 million votes so far, or 50 percent, while Hillary is at 8.7 million, or 46 percent. If you add in the votes of Florida and Michigan, whose delegates were stripped by the national party after they held their primaries before February 5 in violation of party rules, Obama has 9.94 million votes and Clinton has 9.86 million, or a 47 to 47 percent tie.

So in other words, Obama is ahead no matter whose numbers you go by. The general buzz this morning on political blogs is this race is Obama’s to lose at this point, unless Hillary sweeps Texas and Ohio by comfortable margins. In that scenario, the fight goes all the way to the convention and the two candidates get to bicker over whether Florida and Michigan get their delegates back and superdelegates decide who to throw their support to and John Edwards plays kingmaker and hands off his 26 delegates to the winner in exchange for the vice presidency. Fun for us, not so fun for the Democratic Party.

So today is probably Huckabee’s last stand. There’s primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia today, and from the polls it looks like Obama will make it an 8-0 streak on Hillary while McCain will put down the Huckabee insurgency in all three states. Now, Huckabee could keep running the race, but I don’t think he will. Why? Well, this is his last chance for big gains this month. Virginia has just the sort of conservative voters that flock to his message and to his pastoral roots. He was down 25 points against McCain a week ago, but he’s been surging. One poll I saw yesterday put him 12 points behind McCain. But realistically, he’s still a long shot to win the state. As for Maryland and DC, neither has quite the rural base of Virginia and he’ll almost definitely lose both states.

Why, then, would Huckabee want to quit now? After all, he pulled off two surprising wins against McCain on Saturday, taking down Lousiana and Kansas and almost pulling off Washington as well. Well, because the electoral math is with McCain, and the longer Huckabee stays in the race the more he embarasses McCain by undermining him and the less likely it is that McCain will offer him the vice-presidency. (Sure, Huckabee says he doesn’t want the vice presidency, but that’s what everyone says until the minute the end up taking it.) Huckabee can’t win the presidency unless he can somehow force a deadlock until the convention. And if he wins 0 out of 3 races today, or even if he wins 1 out of 3, the pressure will be on him to drop out. There are only two more primaries this month, Hawaii and Wisconsin, and the base there is much more likely to support Maverick McCain than Holy Huckabee. At that point Huck will be 0 for 6 or 1 for 6 at best in the last six contests, and momentum will be against him. He should get out after today, when he still has momentum in his favor and McCain still has enough worries about challenges from the right that he’ll embrace Huck as his running mate.

On the Democratic side, Obama will sweep the three primaries today. When you add in the Virgin Islands, Maine, Washington, Louisiana and Kansas, the momentum Barack has gained against Hillary since Saturday will be almost unstoppable. Oh, and when he wins in Hawaii and Wisconsin, it will only pile on the pressure. Hillary’s firewall now is Texas or Ohio, but the “concede the small states, save the battle for Florida” strategy didn’t work for Rudy and it probably won’t work for Hillary in Ohio or Texas. Sure, Hillary’s way ahead in the polls in both states, but Obama’s numbers go up whenever he campaigns in a state (unlike Hillary, as people already know about her and her presence is unlikely to sway more peopl eto her side.) If he can win one of the two states it will be over for the Clintons, I think.

One thing that has improved for Hillary since Super Tuesday: Her money problems appear to have disappeared. The day after Super Tuesday, her campaign announced that she was short on cash, that her top staffers would be working for free and that she was making a $5 million loan to her campaign. Her donors opened the floodgates, and two days later she’d raised a cool $7 million. Now, that money probably went a long way, since her staffers were working for free and she already had made a $5 million loan, right? Not so, according to an ABC News story from last friday. It turns out her staffers never had to go without pay, and it looks like there was never any intention for them to do so. It was all just a ruse. And according to other news organizations, Hillary paid back her loan with all the green she’d gained that week. So it was one big stunt. Nice.

I leave you today with this quote from Congressional Quarterly reporter David Corn, as an explanation of why there’s such a rift right now between Hillary and Obama supporters when the two candidates basically believe all the same things and have voted the same way. Basically, it’s the marketing.

Clinton presents herself as the tried-and-tested hard-worker who can get stuff done. Obama offers himself as a transformative figure who can–due to his power to inspire–bring about change. It’s math versus music. And after seven years of George W. Bush–during which the music was awful and the math was bad–Democrats crave both proven competence and uplifting inspiration. — David Corn

Goodbye Mitt Romney. It was nice knowing you. And even though I never understood why the journalists were always raving about your “Hollywood good looks”, “chiseled features” or “shoulders you could land a 747 on”, I think you were a nice guy.

For those of you who do not ingest politics or accidentally look at the front page of MSNBC on someone else’s computer while you’re daydreaming in class, well, this is the day we say goodbye to Mr. Romney and his latter day ambitions of grandeur. By all accounts, he makes a great businessman and a good governor of a super liberal state, but strangely enough Republican voters didn’t buy his conversion to their cause and split up the vote between Bible belter Huckabee and Golf-ball-cheeks McCain. (Seriously, have you ever LOOKED at the guy’s jaw? His head is shaped like a giant Mr. Peanut.) Romney dropped out of the race suspended his campaign today after pulling out his TI-85, adding up his electoral delegates and Huckabee’s delegates and comparing them to McCain’s delegates. Could he spend a gazillion more dollars of his personal fortune? Yes. Would it buy him anything besides ridicule?

No. So he dropped out. And it’s kind of sad, really. I blame it all on New Hampshire and its stupid open primary, where pollsters claimed Obama had a solid lead in the Democratic race and all the independents that probably would have voted for Obama instead crossed over and voted on the Republican side for McCain, thereby denying Romney what would have otherwise been an easy New Hampshire victory. Oh, and it did Obama no favors either, as the move sapped his Iowa momentum and ceded a win in the state to Hillary.

I had this crazy idea, before Super Tuesday, that if Huckabee just reached out to Romney, maybe they could run on a combined ticket where Huck got to be president and Romney took the vice. You ask yourself: Why would Romney do this? Well, the indications were all there before Super Tuesday that McCain’s nomination was inevitable. Huckabee would almost certainly get the veep slot from McCain, while Romney could do nothing but tank. So instead, if they’d allied together, maybe Romney could have dropped out, thrown his endorsement to Huckabee and instead of splitting the votes the conservatives could rally behind Huckabee and take back the nomination from Chipmunk-Cheeks McCain.

It’s obviously a little late for that now. Huckabee will stay in the race for another week, but barring supermajorities in the primaries this weekend plus a landslide in the Chesapeake Primaries next Tuesday, he’ll turn it over to McCain so the guy can Unite the Clans and woo Rush, Dobson and the other conservatives who hate his guts right now back to his side. As for Romney, there’s always 2012. People really like you, Mitt. It’s just that conservatives doubted your sincerity until it was too late. Yes, you believed we should double or triple the capacity of Guantanamo Bay. That was nice and all.

But you also believe that angels fluttered down in the 19th century with a big stack of golden tablets and great news of the Mormon life. And just think of it: You also get a private planet and passel of wives (if indeed you were a upstanding Mormon fellow.) All these things seem pretty foreign to the Republican base. Don’t worry, though: After they spent the next four years under a liberal president (Hillary, Obama or McCain, take your pick), they’ll be happy to nominate you and embrace your new-fangled beliefs and supplemental texts to the Bible.

Well, this blog fell asleep once the college football season got all wonky, but an exciting primary season for the presidency should get things back on track. First things first: OMGWTFOBAMA!!! And WTF, HUCK? There, I singlehanded proved why ‘net abbreviations and politics don’t work.

Tuesday was a big win for Obama. It wasn’t as big as some pollsters were predicting. For instance, Zogby predicted an Obama win by 14 points instead of the real outcome of Hillary winning by 10 points. But if someone had predicted two weeks ago that Obama would take 13 states on Super Tuesday, take a 14th race down to the wire in New Mexico and concede only 8 states to Hillary, that someone would have been laughed at. By me, for one. Heck, even a week ago after Edwards dropped off there was no consensus about where his support would go and which candidate would surge. What was known: Hillary was on top of the polls and enjoying a significant national lead. What’s known now: The two turned out a near identical number of supporters nationwide on Tuesday, and they’re pretty close to tied on delegate counts (about 850 a piece, depending on whose figures you use and how you count super delegates. Obama had an obvious surge of support that started moving the polls last Friday and continued up through Tuesday. If the super primary had been held February 12 instead, Dems might have crowned a nominee instead of simply raising the stakes for both candidates. But I’m sure of this: Early voting makes it really difficult to predict outcomes. When states like California issue half a million absentee ballots and people began voting 10 days ago, it can definitely sap the momentum a surge might otherwise bring. Oh well. That’s a polling problem, not an election issue. And don’t even get me started on Oregon’s vote-by-mail nonsense.

Back to Obama vs. Hillary - I gotta be honest: I didn’t care about Obama. Just another Democrat to split the vote with Edwards and give Hillary the win. But I changed my mind last night after hearing Obama’s victory speech. Here’s a YouTube link, if you’re interested. (It gets good after the first minute and a half.) Obama’s speech made me think that maybe we could finally get a Democrat that focuses on getting things done instead of whining about what’s not getting done. “Our time is come, our movement is real, and change is coming to America.” Nothing about the bad Republicans, or vote for me because I’m black, or vote for me because I’m a woman, or vote for me because I represent your interests. His message is different: He’s saying, “I represent America as we want it to be, and I represent your hopes and your dreams.” No pandering, just hope and a promise of a different Washington.

Is this realistic? I really don’t know. Obama has the same savvy political operatives of any other politician, and I’m not saying he won’t make mistakes. But hopefully, he won’t get jaded and hopefully he’ll shellack Hillary and beat McCain in the generals. Now, it’s possible that Obama just looks good next to the nepotistic crybaby formerly known as Hillary Rodham Clinton and now called by her first name by everyone including me.  But here’s hoping.

Tommorrow: Analysis on the Republican side. Maybe I’ll actually update this thing two days in a row!