Archive for November, 2007
Week 12 picks
Well, Week 11 wasn’t pretty but it wasn’t painful either. I put up a bunch of units and at the end of the day was only down 1.5 units because my bigger games won out. Still, going 3 and 5 sucks. On to this week:
| Oregon -12, 2u |
Oregon @ Arizona. Oregon plays its first Thursday night game in quite a while (I can’t ever remember one before) and makes its case for why it should stay in the top 2, regardless of what those Big 12 teams do in the next few weeks. Out of the three remaining Oregon games, I think this one is the most dangerous. Arizona always warms up its play by November, and their quarterback is quite good. I doubt they’ll be able to stop Oregon’s offense; the question is, if this turns in to a shootout in the desert, could Arizona get lucky? I’m thinking not, but I would completely understand if people would rather parlay the over with an Arizona victory here. |
| Nevada +8, 4u |
Hawaii @ Nevada. OK, OK, I know it’s an undefeated team vs. a 5-4 middle-grade WAC team. But Hawaii is a few plays a way from a middle-grade WAC team itself. The reason? The Warriors have terrible road game play. Nevada, on the other hand, has been heating up and is a very different team than the one Nebraska thrashed at the start of the season. Also, Colt Brennan took a huge hit last game and he may not be at 100%, despite the comments from his coach that he’s fine. This game might be my play of the season. |
| Mississippi State +11, 2u |
Miss. State @ Arkansas. The Razorbacks keep on finding ways to lose, whereas Mississippi State looks like they’re going to a bowl game for the first time in years. Momentum is with the underdog here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upset Arkansas and win this one outright. |
| Boise State -33.5, 1u |
Idaho @ Boise State. The Broncos are kings of the blue turf. Their last few home games have been blowouts. I don’t know that much about Idaho other than they suck, otherwise I’d put more than one unit on this game. |
| Duke ML +200, 1u |
Duke @ Notre Dame. Of all my picks, this is the one where I have the least confidence. Duke has screwed me this season time and time again. But I love betting against the Irish, and Duke’s team is fired up enough to win this one outright. |
| Georgia -7.5, 2u |
Kentucky @ Georgia. Man, the Bulldogs are on fire these last few weeks! They’ve put up solid performances and blasted through some opponents I thought they’d have a tough time with. I’m a little worried about the spread here, but I think Georgia pulls it off no problem. |
| Missouri -7, 2u |
Missouri @ Kansas State. I can’t believe the spread here is only 7. Nebraska just stormed through the Wildcats last week, and Missouri might possibly deserve its top 5 rating. There’s something wrong here and I can’t put my finger on it, so when in doubt, I’ll just bet two units and hope everything turns out for the best. |
| Ohio State -4, 2u |
Ohio State @ Michigan. Ugh. I can’t believe I’m favoring the Buckeyes here, as a Michigan win would really firm up Oregon’s strength of schedule. I guess a big reason to root for OSU here, though, is if Michigan wins and Oregon gets shafted for the national title game, Oregon will go to the Rosebowl and we’ll have a boring rematch of Oregon/Michigan in which the Ducks blow out the Wolverines again and no one is impressed. Bias aside, Ohio State should trample the Wolverines. |
| Washington State -2, 3u |
Oregon State @ Washington State. I can’t help but wonder: Did any of the oddsmakers SEE the Oregon State/Washington game this last weekend? It was horrendous … I can’t believe the Cougars are only favored here by 2. The Beavers have no discipline, a terrible quarterback and really nothing in their favor besides a better than average running back and fantastic kicker. WSU has Pine Martin Stadium, which chews up teams and spits them out. |
| Wisconsin -13.5, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Minnesota. This game seems like a lock for the Badgers, but I’m an idiot when it comes to handicapping Big Ten football. Also, I guess this is the rivalry game for the two teams. I’m not sure if they’re playing for the Keg’o'Nails trophy or the Little Brown Jug, but I’m glad I don’t have to watch garbage games like this on the West Coast. |
[UPDATED] Week 11 picks
Wow, it’s already week 11? I am seriously screwed for final exams, thanks to all this time spent with football. Anyway, I was on fire for last weekend’s picks. I went 7 for 9 in picks but the bets I lost were tiny. Also, I lucked out and got Michigan at -3 1/2 instead of -4 so I won the bet when they came back against MSU and won by 4. Result: Up 12.46 units for the week. Oh: One note here. GridironPolitics favorite Troy State does play this week, but it’s against provisional 1A team Western Kentucky, so the sportsbooks don’t have any lines. If I find a line later this week, I’ll bet it and put it up here.
On to this week: [Changes of bets and lines are striked, new bets/lines are in bold.]
| Wake Forest +9, 1u |
Wake Forest @ Clemson. Wake is really not that bad of a team, and Clemson is a perennial underachiever. I bet the Tigers win this game, but I’m happy to take the underdog by anything over a touchdown here. |
| Miami -3 1/2, 1u |
Virginia @ Miami. Wow, I never thought I’d be betting on the Hurricanes. Virginia has been lucky to squeak by with a lot of close games, while Miami’s QB delivered the most awful performance ever against North Carolina State: 14 pass attempts, one completion, three interceptions. That’s right. Three times the interceptions as completions. But I don’t think he can possibly play another game that bad, and therefore, his performance last week is dragging down a line that should otherwise be 7 or so. |
| Air Force -2 1/2, 3u |
Air Force @ Notre Dame. Alright, I know, Navy beat Air Force then barely sneaks by the Irish in triple overtime a few weeks later. That’s fine, but the Air Force team of this week could whip Navy of Week 10. And the Irish are really, really good at losing. |
| Arizona State |
Arizona State @ UCLA. OK, so the Ducks beat up on the Sun Devils, but they’re still a great team. I was worried the whole game about them coming back and beating us. UCLA, while perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, is horribly coached and very inconsistent. I bet against them in this spot every time. Update: Didn’t bet this in time to get it at 6 1/2, so I had to settle for 7. |
| Auburn |
Auburn @ Georgia. Auburn is a monster team on the road. Georgia just sneaked by Troy (44 - 34). Yes, I’m a huge fanboy of Troy, but still, failing to beat the spread against a mid-major is a problem for a 7-2 SEC team. Auburn will thrash the Bulldogs here. Line got better here. |
| Washington State -10 1/2, 2u |
Stanford @ Washington State. Playing at Martin Stadium in Eastern Washington is really, really tough. It’s very cold this time of year, the crowd is boisterous and the visiting team gets unlucky very often. Arizona State barely got by against Wazzu a few weeks ago in a similar spot; Stanford will lose by two touchdowns here. |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri. TAMU has no way of stopping Missouri in this game. They got killed by Oklahoma and they’ll have similar problems vs. Missouri’s potent offense. Also, I bet against A&M until coach Fran gets fired or Jamey tells me not to. Update: Jamey told me not to. See comments below for more info, but I’m playing A&M to beat the spread (and lose.) | |
| Michigan |
Michigan @ Wisconsin. On paper, this is probably a bad bet. Michigan barely came back against MSU, and Wisconsin kept in close against OSU before tanking late in the third quarter. But Michigan wants the win here more than Wisconsin - after all, the Wolverines are the only team not named OSU that still has a chance at the Big 10 Championship. |
-5, 2u |