Archive for October, 2007
Week 6 picks (Revised)
Well, all the upsets Saturday cost me dearly, as my picks relied on favorites like Oklahoma and West Virginia to pull through. I went 6 out of 14 for the week. Using the weighted average, I was down 2.5 units, after picking 30.9 units worth of bets for the weekend. I’m sorry to say I was right about Cal. Oh well, at least Cincinatti and Troy came through for me.
Final picks for week 6
| South Carolina -3 1/2, 1u u57 1/2, 1u |
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| Louisville -13 1/2, 1u o62, 1u |
Utah @ Louisville. This spread is really weird if you consider how Utah thrashed UCLA and how magnificent lowly Syracuse looked against Louisville. I’m just gonna throw out those games as outliers. The Cardinals are playing at home, Big East rivals West Virginia and Rutgers stumbled over the weekend, and Brian Brohm is pissed that his Heisman hopes have gone down the drain with two losses thus far. This will be a good old fashioned beating. Update:If Louisville beats the spread there will be a lot of points on the board, so I’m also taking the over. |
| Cinci +3 1/2, 2u |
Cincinnati @ Rutgers. Cincinnati is having an amazing season, whereas Rutgers just tanked at Maryland. Sure, the Scarlet Knights play at home, but I don’t think a team like Rutgers really has a home field advantage with such a new fan base. A few mistakes, and their fans will turn against them. Update: Cincinnati has been winning games because of turnovers. They’ve got 13 INTs this season, Rutgers has 4. Yet another reason to go with the Bearcats. |
| Wisconsin +2 1/2, 2u |
Wisconsin @ Illinois. This is just nuts: Wisconsin is ranked number 5 in the AP poll, coaches poll, ESPN Power 16 and ESPN fan standings, while Illinois is unranked. Vegas rates Wisconsin as number 12 in the CCR rankings and puts Illinois at number 50. Of course, Wisconsin has barely won a bunch of trashy games, but they’ve got something to prove here with their 14-game win streak. They need to win this more than Illinois does. I’m betting the Badgers come through. |
+14 1/2 |
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| Wake Forest -7, 3u |
Wake Forest @ Duke. I was quite happy winning with Duke last week, but that was with a 24-point margin. One touchdown is not enough here against the Demon Deacons, who are better than their record indicates. |
| Eastern Michigan +31 1/2, 2u |
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan. Can Michigan come off with a blowout here? They couldn’t against Northwestern, and the only time they’ve even scored above 28 points was against Notre Dame. I need to do a bit more research on Eastern Mich’s defense before I’m certain about this one, though. Update: Eastern Michigan’s D is pretty horrible. They allow about 26 ppg and only put up 15 ppg themselves. However, Michigan’s offense is really bad, statistically. Also, E. Mich is not quite so bad at defending the run as it is overall on D, and I feel Hart is still the main factor for the Wolverines, despite a down game last week. Wolverines win, but fail to beat the spread. |
| Wyoming -3, 2u |
TCU @ Wyoming. TCU was the widely-heralded bowl buster this season. Instead, they threw a few games and now the Cowboys are favored against them. Wyoming is a decent team, and the folks from Texas will probably have difficulty adjusting to October weather on the open plains. |
+3 1/2 |
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| Colorado -8 1/2, 2u |
Colorado @ Baylor. CU is on the rise after beating Oklahoma. Unless they overlook this game, they’ll thrash Baylor. |
| Oklahoma -11, 2u |
Oklahoma @ Texas. Sure, the Longhorns have beaten the Sooners in the last two matchups, and both teams looked awful on Saturday. But the Sooners are actually a good team this year, which is more than can be said of Texas. Stoops’ boys will rebound here. |
| Georgia +2, 2u |
Georgia @ Tennessee. I think the Bulldogs are a decent team here. I think the Volunteers are awful. Sure, this game is at Tennessee and anything could happy, but I’m pretty happy taking Georgia here as an underdog. |
| Texas Tech -24 1/2, 2u |
Iowa State @ Texas Tech. Tech put up 75 points last Saturday. Sure, it was against a 1-AA team, but they still have quite the offense. Iowa State, on the other hand, is really, really, bad. Sure, they beat Iowa, but the Hawkeyes were nothing great. Tech’s a better team than people give them credit for. They should beat this spread without much difficulty. |
| UNLV +6, 1u |
UNLV @ Air Force. How is Air Force the 6-point favorite here? UNLV hasn’t been that bad this year, whereas Air Force is not even the best of three bad service academies. I might just recommend betting the money line on this one in favor of UNLV. |
| Tulsa -3 1/2, 1u |
Tulsa @ UTEP. Every week, I bet Tulsa. Every week, they let me down. It stops this week! |
| Arizona State -8 1/2, 3u |
Arizona State @ Washington State. Seriously, 8 1/2 points? Wazzu is not a good team this year, whereas the Sun Devils are undefeated and rolling up opposing teams (see their 40-point beatdown of Stanford on Saturday.) I do admit Martin Stadium is a tough place to play - I’ve seen the Ducks lose or eke out close ones against the Cougars on their home turf, even when Oregon was the vastly superior team. But I think the spread is reasonable here for a Sun Devil victory. |
| FAU +15 1/2, 1u u48 1/2, 2u |
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic. FAU really isn’t that bad, and while I like South Florida, I don’t think they deserve their number 6 ranking. USF wins here, of course, but I don’t think it will be by more than two touchdowns. Update: Especially considering USF averages only 28 points a game. Yes, their defense allows about 14 points a game but FAU has had a decent schedule so far this season (loss vs. Oklahoma State, win vs. Minnesota, win vs. Middle Tennessee, win vs. crappy 1-AA school) and still managed to put up about 24 points a game. I just don’t think USF can beat the spread. |
| Troy -18, 2u |
Troy @ Florida International. I really don’t care who Troy plays, as long as they keep beating the spread. They’ve been golden the last three weeks. I ride this one until they crash. The streak isn’t likely to end against a team as horrible as FIU. |