Archive for October, 2007
Well, I’ve had good luck the last three weeks. After tanking in week 6, I’ve posted three solid weeks. I went 3 and 3 in Week 7, 4 and 3 in Week 8 and 4 and 3 this last weekend.That’s 11 and 9 for a three week record, which I’m very happy with*.
*So happy, in fact, that I end a sentence with a preposition.
Anyway, here are this week’s picks.
| Navy ML +150, 2u |
Navy @ Notre Dame. Navy hasn’t won a game against the Irish in a bazillion years. Navy’s got a solid offense, even if their defense is terrible. I’m betting Navy puts up six touchdowns, and despite their awful defense, the Irish won’t be able to locate the end zone often enough to keep it close. |
| Oregon -7, 2u |
Arizona State @ Oregon. Autzen is a horrible place for opposing teams. I went to the game vs. USC, and MAN was it loud. The crowd is really into it this year, and our defense just feeds off all that noise. Arizona State is a pretty good team this year, but their QB, Carpenter, hurt his thumb in the fourth quarter vs. Cal and apparently he showed up to practice wearing a thumb brace. I figure that might affect his throwing, and with the performance of our D-backs, that means we get a few picks out of the deal. Also, we have this QB named Dixon and I think he’s pretty swell. For the record, I really, really don’t like the spread of a touchdown here, but I think Oregon pulls it off more than 50 percent of the time. |
| Michigan -4, 1u ML -170, 3u |
Michigan @ Michigan State. Michigan has been on fire since their losses vs. spread offenses. I’m a little worried because Hart has been out for a few games with injuries, after carrying the ball 200 times this season. But the Wolverines have the momentum and the motivation: If they win out, the Nov. 17 matchup vs. Ohio State will determine who wins the Big 10, and give Michigan a chance to foil OSU’s chances at the national championship. I’m betting on the moneyline here because I’m not convinced Michigan will win by more than a field goal … I just think they’re going to win. |
| Oklahoma -21, 2u |
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma. As Jamey notes below in the comments, Stoops has no qualms about running up the score, even if margins of victory are not considered by the BCS computers. (I guarantee that the human voters pay attention to the margins.) A&M is awful this year and Oklahoma has everything to prove - after all, the Ducks are still ahead of them in the BCS ;-). |
| Wisconsin +15 1/2, 1u |
Wisconsin @ Ohio State. OK, so PSU couldn’t take out the Buckeyes last week. And I doubt the Badgers will, either. But despite OSU’s stingy defense, I just don’t see Wisconsin losing by more than two touchdowns here. |
| Missouri - 3 1/2, 2u |
Missouri @ Colorado. The spread is low here because Colorado has snuck up on a few good teams. They are not a great team yet, they just prey on the unprepared. Missouri is paying attention to this one, and they are not Texas Tech (remember, Missouri’s win over Tech probably caused the downward spiral that made the Red Raiders lose to Colorado the next weekend.) Missouri wins here by 10 at least. |
| Troy +16 1/2, 3u ML 700, 1u |
Troy @ Georgia. Does my betting streak with the Trojans come to an end here? Georgia is coming off a huge win over Florida and they’ve got another big game next weekend vs. Auburn. This weekend’s game is commonly referred to as a trap game - a game where the underdog is not as bad as many think, and the favorite is looking ahead to the next game instead of treating their competition seriously. I think Troy keeps it close here. I also think there’s an outside chance they upset the Bulldogs (Oklahoma State, anyone?) so I’ll take the moneyline as well as the spread. |
Week 9 picks
| Oregon -2 1/2, 2u |
USC @ Oregon. This is the first time in the regular season USC has been a dog since their 2004 thrashing of Auburn. Will history repeat itself? This Duck fan hopes not. Factors favoring Oregon here: Our offense is awesome. Homefield advantage at Autzen. Dixon being consistent and not cracking under pressure. Jonathan Stewart. USC going down to the wire against bad opponents. Chip Kelley. Factors favoring USC here: Oregon’s injuries finally catching up to them. Number 2 defense (though who has USC played to get those defensive numbers?) USC’s ability to come through with big games (see their 38-0 win over the Irish.) All in all, I take the Ducks, but I’m glad I got on this line before it moved to -3. |
| South Florida -4, 2u |
South Florida @ Connecticut. UConn is not a great football team, but they’ve had a great season so far, thanks to patsies on the schedule and two lucky officiating calls that make the Big East wish for some of those quality replay officials from the Oregon/Oklahoma game of 2006. USF is quite good, and despite their loss against Rutgers, this is a quality ball squad who should cover, unless they’ve lost their motivation with last week’s defeat. |
| Texas Tech -13, 1u |
Colorado @ Texas Tech. There’s a lot of reasons to stay away from this game. Colorado’s pretty decent, Tech got hammered against Missouri last week, etc. But Tech is still a bit underrated, so I think the spread is off enough here to justify putting money on them. |
| VT -3, 2u |
Boston College @ Virginia Tech. Man I hate the ACC. I’m probably just betting this game because I want BC to lose so my Ducks advance. Neither team is really that good. Washington could probably beat them and I’m sure teams like Texas Tech, Illinois and Rutgers could walk all over them. Regardless, I pick the home team here and cross my fingers. |
| Wake Forest -5 1/2, 2u |
UNC @ Wake Forest. Wake is the defending ACC champ, and not a bad football team at all. UNC is, at best, inconsistent. They’ve been doing a good job of beating the spread lately, but winning games is something else, and I just can’t see this game settling for less than a touchdown. |
| Kansas -2 1/2, 2u |
Kansas @ Texas A&M. According to Jamey, a friend of mine who’s a diehard Aggie fan, I should bet against A&M every game of this season. Makes sense. They’re a bad football team this year, they make other teams look great when they play against them (for instance, Miami) and they’re overrated after a win against a tilted Nebraska squad. The Jayhawks aren’t bad, either. Advantage: Kansas. |
| Troy -4, 2u |
Troy @ Arkansas State. I know, I know, I bet Troy every week, no matter what. I’m a little worried this week, though. Arkansas State has won four out of the last five games, and this is one of the toughest conference games the Trojans face this year. Regardless, Troy has done me proud, so I bet them until I get burned. |
Week 8 picks + last week …
So after an abysmal week 6 (I went 5 for 15 and lost 11 units out of 29 bet) I failed to write a week 7 post here. I thought some of you might be curious what my picks were, though, if you’ll trust this ex-post-facto report:
- Parlayed Michigan/Missouri, 2 units: Won 5.3u.
- Parlayed South Car/BC, 2 units: Lost 2.2u.
- Cincinatti -10, 2u, Lost 2u.
- Oregon -18 1/2, 2u, Won 1.81u.
- Texas Tech -10, 2u, won 1.81u.
- Illinois - 4 1/2, Lost 2u.
Result: Up 2.92 units.
| USF -2 1/2, 2u. |
USF @ Rutgers. I really, really want Rutgers to beat USF so the Ducks have a better chance of going to the national championship. But if you’re wagering money instead of brokering in wishful thinking, I think this is a pretty good bet. |
| South Carolina -13, 2u. |
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina. Spurrier has beaten the spread ALMOST every week this season. I’ll forgive him against surging North Carolina, but I’ll bet his team continues to outperform expectations. Also, Vandy has been a disappointment this year. |
| Wake Forest -3, 1u. |
Wake Forest @ Navy. Wake just a field goal ahead of Navy? Are you kidding me? I like Wake, and I think they play better than they look on paper. I’m a little incredulous about this spread, though, so if you wanted to avoid it it might not be a bad idea. |
| Auburn +11, 2u. |
Auburn @ LSU. Auburn is a tremendous road team, and LSU is a worn out team after tough, tough games vs. Florida and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls an upset here, but save your money and just bet the spread. |
| Cincinnati - 9 1/2, 2u. |
Cinci @ Pittsburg. Pitt is a bad team. Cinci is not. Cinci covers the spread (except for last week.) Pittsburg loses, by a lot. I’d bet this game for anything under three touchdowns. |
| Oregon -11, 2u. |
Oregon @ Washington. I’m a little worried about this game, as Oregon had two awful injuries last week vs. Wazzu. We’re going pretty deep into the depth chart now, but hopefully some receivers/backs step up to the task. Washington is a decent team this year but our defense is improving. Also, Washington seems to melt in the second half, whereas Oregon often comes alive then. |
| Troy -18, 2u. |
North Texas @ Troy. Troy has been doing a great job on the spread, although it was a push last week. North Texas sucks. If I bet only Troy ATS this entire year, I think I’d make a lot of money. |
All apologies
The Casper Star Tribune has a heartbreaking story about what happens when you throw rocks off cliffsides. Long story short: Guy throws rock, climber dies, then rock-thrower does the unthinkable and apologizes for his actions. Hmmm. Not something you see every day. Certainly isn’t true in the wretched world of politics (see Larry Craig’s it’s-the-media’s-fault fingerpointing to account for all the hookups he’s had in mens rooms.) But it’s equally unlikely to happen in the world of football. Case in point: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy’s rant against columnist Jennifer Carlson for suggesting OSU’s former starting quarterback was an emotional trainwreck. The best Gundy could do? Apologize for “raising his voice.” The best Carlson could do? Play the victim and avoid admitting that perhaps her column crossed the line. Both parties were out of line, and I guess that’s OK, it’s out of the news cycle now.
I’m not suggesting people in sports are incapable of being honest. LSU coach Les Miles, for example, had this to say about AP voters who put his team at the number one spot this week: “Anybody that voted us No. 1 obviously didn’t get up and watch us play Saturday,” Miles said. “We have to come to work and prepare. We have a lot to improve on and a lot to accomplish.” LSU beat Tulane 34-9, but it was 10-9 at the half. Sportswriters didn’t seem to care that LSU was incapable of beating the spread and rewarded them for not sucking it up like USC did in their 27-24 win against lowly Washington.
There’s at least two sportswriters this week who don’t need to apologize: Kirk Herbstreit and Stewart Mandel. The two saw past Oregon’s heartbreaking loss to Cal and moved the Ducks up to the number 5 and 6 spots, respectively. Does Oregon deserve this treatment? Probably not. But there aren’t too many teams below them that Oregon couldn’t take on a neutral field. Sure, they’d probably lose to LSU, and you might have to flip a coin to see who would win if they rematched Cal, or played USC. Maybe USF might give the Ducks some problems, as South Florida shut down West Virginia’s spread offense without a lot of difficulty. Before this week, I thought Oklahoma might give Oregon some problems if the Ducks continued to be undefeated and they met Oklahoma in a big bowl game. But now, after Colorado’s upset, I’m not so sure. In any case, if Oregon turns out to be overrated, I’ll write a nice apology.
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