Gridiron Politics

So after waiting the better part of the week for the line to move on a few of these games, I’ve decided to suspend three of my picks for the week and put a caveat on a few others. I tried to be pretty clear in each case that I wouldn’t bet until the line shifted. Well, it hasn’t, so here are my changes:

Miss.St/South Carolina : I wanted Mississippi State to have a more generous spread than the two touchdowns the bettors were originally ceding to the Gamecocks. Instead, the line’s gone down to 13 1/2. I can’t recommend this game, and I won’t be betting it. It’s probably 50/50, but even money is a loser in sports betting.

Arizona St/Stanford : Again, the line has barely moved here all week. Some books have the Sun Devils by 14 1/2, the others have stayed at 14. Again, I think the Cardinal might lose by less than two TDs but it’s not a sure thing. I would have bet this had it gotten to 17, but at the current spread I’ll be staying away this weekend.

Notre Dame/Purdue : The line simply hasn’t shifted here the way I thought it would. The spread is hovering between 22 and 22 1/2 in favor of Purdue. The Irish clearly lose this game, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they go down beyond the 3 touchdown mark. I’d hold off on betting this one, unless it’s in favor of the Irish. Then again, the money might not be safe on Notre Dame either … they’ve certainly proved themselves capable of losing games by larger margins.

Those are the only three bets that completely go against my earlier recommendations. In a few others games, however, I would recommend slight modifications if you haven’t bet yet already:

Penn St/Illinois: I am thinking more and more that Zook’s team wins straight out over Penn State here. The spread of 3 is kind of silly in this case. I was waiting for it to go to 4+ but it looks like Penn State will only be favored by a field goal. So why put down $110 to win $100 when you can just bet $100 on Illinois winning it outright for a shot at $140? Updated bet: Moneyline at +140 on Illinois. 2u.

Auburn/Florida: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida last year. They probably won’t do it again this year, but if Auburn keeps within the 18-point spread, expect this to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I’d recommend parlaying the +18 spread with the under, which is currently hovering around 54 1/2. Updated bet: Parlay Auburn +18/Under 54 1/2. Odds of 2.65/1, 2u.

California/Oregon: As I stated before, I don’t bet against the Ducks. But what I didn’t mention is that Oregon rarely loses close games. They’ve only had two sub 9 point losses since November of 2004. The reason I point this out? Picking Cal at +6 (which is currently the spread) is a bad deal. Just bet the moneyline for them to win out, if you feel like betting against Oregon. If you don’t want to go against Oregon, do what I suggested earlier and parlay the spread with the over. Updated bet: Moneyline at +205 on Cal. 1u.

Well, I didn’t do bad for my first time around on picks. I won 7 and lost 6, although two of those wins (Oregon and Troy) would have been pushes if I had to win by the spread I set myself instead of the number on major sportsbooks. My losses, though, were very ugly. A&M got killed by Miami, Tulsa wasn’t able to keep it close against Oklahoma in the second half, New Mexico State got clobbered, Texas Tech lost a close one despite getting almost 700 yards of offense, Wyoming lost, and Nebraska squeaked one out against an inferior Ball St. Team. But I feel very good about my Big 10 instincts at the moment, as Michigan came through over Penn. State and MSU beat up on Notre Dame for the Irish’s 6th consecutive loss since last year.

New for this week: Not all picks are created equal, and if I were really betting on these games instead of just picking numbers, I would bet more on the games where I thought I had an edge. So, let’s assume for the purposes of this blog that I have a bankroll that is budgeted only for sportsbetting, and that I have divided that bankroll up into 50 equal pieces, so that a bad week doesn’t wipe out my entire account. I will value my picks by expressing how many bankroll units I would bet on them (usually between 1 and 4). So Oklahoma -23 4u means I’ll be betting 4 units of my bankroll on Oklahoma winning by more than 23 points.

NOTE: Lines that are struck out (like this) are no longer recommended. See the Week 5 updates post for more information.

College football Saturday suddenly has new meaning for me. Not only is it the most sacred day of the week, or simply the day when Oregon thrashes a lesser foe on the gridiron, but now it is the day that wins and losses are tallied up in my sports ledger.

That’s right: Starting this week, I am now making an attempt to handicap college football and guess who will win the games BEFORE they happen. (Afterward is SO much easier, but I guess we can’t all pull a Back to the Future II and steal a sports almanac from 30 years later.)

So, starting today and continuing every Thursday through bowl season, I’ll give you, oh eager reader, a dozen plus predictions for the weekend’s games. This, of course, is for entertainment only, and I do NOT endorse gambling unless you are in Las Vegas or outside of the U.S. or on a riverboat and then I encourage you to gamble a lot and give all your proceeds to charity.

Key:

• The + signs or - signs refer to the handicapping of that game. If I say, for instance, that Oregon is -7 to play Stanford, that means Oregon will probably win, and in fact, casinos are so sure Oregon will win that they’ll reward the Stanford faithful by giving them 7 free points. In other words, if you bet on Oregon at -7, that means Oregon must win by MORE than 7 points for you to win the bet. If you take Stanford, then, it would be at +7, which means as long as Stanford loses by FEWER than 7 points, you win your bet. If Oregon wins at exactly 7 points, it’s a push, which means neither side wins or loses anything. This is why many spreads are at a half point, because you can’t score a half point in football and therefore you can’t tie on a half point spread.

• The game is always played at the SECOND team’s stadium. In other words, Oregon/Stanford means the game is played at Stanford.

• Money line is the opposite of spread. Instead of saying a team must win by 7 points, you simply say you’ll reward the underdog in a game with more money if they manage to do the impossible and win the game. As I write this, for instance, the money line for the Oregon/Stanford game is somewhere around 1 to 9. That is, for every 9 dollars you wager, you win $1 if Oregon wins but you lose the whole amount if Stanford wins. The casino obviously has to make a profit on this somewhere, so if you bet on Stanford right now the odds would be something like 6.5 to 1. That is, for every $1 you bet on Stanford you win $6.50 in the unlikely even they win. I’ll attempt to call several money line games each week, but this is a little less important than point spread because not every casino has a money line but every one that bets sports has a point spread.

• Sports books are a place in a casino where sports bets are placed. Known as “books” for short.

• Over/Under: Simply a bet on how many points are scored in a game. If the over is 67.5, for example, both teams combined have to score more than 68 points in the game for you to win this bet.

Now, to the games: